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The fastest-growing and shrinking economies in 2018

Only four economies are forecast to contract

By THE DATA TEAM

EVER since the global economy completed its rebound from the financial crisis of 2008, it has grown at a moderate but steady pace. That trend is likely to continue in 2018: according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the world’s GDP is expected to increase by 2.7% this year, just slightly less than the 2.9% registered in 2017.

Once again, the biggest contributor will be China. The world’s second-biggest economy is projected to grow by 5.8% this year, representing roughly a third of the total global expansion. However, this rate is still a full percentage point less than the country’s mark last year: Xi Jinping, China’s president, is seeking to rein in credit growth, slowing its economy. That leaves India as the world’s fastest-growing large economy, with a brisk projected increase in GDP of 7.8%. Southeast Asia is also expected to perform well: Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos are all slated to come in above 6%.

The rich world cannot hope to compete with such rapid growth rates. However, most developed countries should still at least approach a healthy 2%, and even long-moribund Italy is forecast to eke out a respectable 1.4%. Perhaps the most encouraging indicator is how widespread expansion is projected to be: the EIU only expects four economies to contract in 2018. The wounds in Venezuela, likely to be the worst performer with an 11.9% loss, are self-inflicted, as gross mismanagement has led to hyperinflation and a looming sovereign-debt default. North Korea is also paying the price for its policies; it faces ever-tightening international sanctions in response to the growth of its nuclear-weapons programme. And the economy of Puerto Rico, technically an overseas territory of the United States, is forecast to shrink by 8%, in the wake of a devastating hurricane that has left much of the island without electricity.

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