Africa’s low rates of smoking in the recent past were largely because of poverty and limited advertising, says Hana Ross, a researcher at the University of Cape Town. But companies have caught on: in Zimbabwe recent advertisements cheerfully boasted: “Not British. Not American. Zimbabwe’s Finest Cigarettes”.
Happily between 1999 and 2010, the share of sub-Saharan Africans living in extreme poverty fell from 58% to 48%. Over the same period, the continent’s total population rose from 767m to over 1 billion. The UN projects that Africa will account for more than half of the world’s population growth over the next 35 years. These predictions tantalise tobacco companies as smoking rates decline in places such as China, Russia and America.
“Tobacco companies are very good at finding market opportunities where there are not only potential smokers, but also weak regulations. Africa is in that sweet spot,” says Michael Eriksen, of Georgia State University. Granted, some African countries have recently tightened tobacco-control laws. In May Uganda banned smoking in public places—a move Ghana made in 2012. Mr Eriksen says such policies discourage smoking but they can also be difficult to enforce. Additionally, excise taxes in Africa are too low. Nigeria taxes cigarettes at only 20% of the retail price, far less than the WHO benchmark of 75%.
Particularly worrying is a rise in the number of young people smoking. Although African men smoke less than those in other developing regions, that is not the case with boys (some 9% of African boys smoke compared with 8% in the Middle East and 6% in the Western Pacific). At this rate Africa will face a greater public health crisis than anywhere else in the world.
