The Economist explains

How Brexit could put some public services under strain

A steep drop in immigration could affect less-skilled parts of the sector

By R.G.

EUROPEAN migrants fill many jobs in Britain’s public services: one in ten doctors and one in 25 nurses is EU-born. Thousands more work as bus drivers, street sweepers and care workers. How might Brexit affect them? It depends on what sort of deal is struck by the government of Theresa May, the new prime minister, who has insisted that she still wants to get annual net migration down to the “tens of thousands”.

Last year, net migration topped 330,000, and net migration from outside the EU made up more than half of that total. Non-EU migrants’ entry is determined by a points system based on factors such as education and salary. Migrants from the EU, by contrast, are currently free to enter Britain at will. If Britain does decide to stop the free movement of labour, EU citizens might be subject to the points system applied to other migrants, or something like it.

In skilled sectors, and especially in the NHS, where there is already a crisis of funding and staffing, the impact might be less severe than expected, says Carlos Vargas-Silva of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford. “It is hard to see any scenarios where there would be limitations on medical professionals,” he says. Most EU-born doctors could easily meet the current non-EU visa conditions—the minimum salary threshold for non-EU work visas is £20,800 ($26,900) per year, rising to £30,000 next year, and the requirement of a graduate-level job. Nurses are already on a “shortage occupation list” which means they do not have to meet the same requirements.

There could be real problems, however, in less-skilled parts of the public sector. Last year, only 19% of EU migrants employed in Britain were in skilled jobs earning more than £20,000. Overall, only one-quarter of jobs in the British labour market meet the conditions for the most common non-EU work visa. In some migrant-heavy private-sector industries, almost no workers would qualify. In “agriculture, forestry and fishing” for instance, just 4% of workers meet the conditions. In the public sector, few unskilled workers would qualify, either. A steep drop in immigration could lead either to a deterioration in services or higher public-sector wages (and therefore, probably, higher taxes) to fill the gaps with British workers. The law of unintended consequences strikes again.

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