Who voters supported in the last American election compared with this one

By THE DATA TEAM

WHAT is a Mitt Romney voter to do? The man’s antithesis, the unscripted and unscrupulous Donald Trump, now leads the Republican ticket. And the other major-party candidate, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, seems hardly palatable.

Many are mulishly choosing neither. Following the cue of their former standard-bearer—who has disparaged Mr Trump loudly and often—only 76% of those who voted for Mr Romney say they will select Mr Trump at the ballot box.

But Mrs Clinton doesn’t fare much better. Polling data for the month of August show that she converts only a sliver more of Barack Obama voters, 79%, to her cause. Most surprisingly, more backers of Mr Obama in the 2012 election are flocking to Mr Trump, about 7.0%, than Romney voters are to Mrs Clinton, only 4.6%. The surprising cohort of erstwhile hope-and-changers who now seek to make America great again are disproportionately white, less educated, and male—a mirror of his usual base. Though the success of his campaigns is usually ascribed to minority and young voters, Mr Obama performed better than anticipated among working-class whites.

Scornful Republicans are much more likely to pledge allegiance to Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, or plead uncertainty when talking with poll-takers. As November draws near, unsure voters will inevitably make up their minds. Unfortunately for Mr Johnson, support for third-party candidates also tends to wither. For Mr Trump or Mrs Clinton, victory may rest on the backs of the begrudging.