Britain | Airport expansion

Final call

The long debate over where to put London’s first full-sized runway for 70 years is drawing to a close. It may not be long before the city needs another one

IN 1944 Heathrow was a rural hamlet best known for its fruit trees and ploughing contests. But in May that year its residents were evicted from their cottages to make way for an international airport. After opening with two runways in 1946, Heathrow immediately planned a third to cope with rising passenger traffic. But although over a dozen commissions and policy papers have subsequently been produced on where to site new runways near London, seven decades of political dithering have meant that none has been built in south-east England since the second world war.

Within days Theresa May, Britain’s new prime minister, is expected to end the procrastination by approving the construction of a third runway at Heathrow, over a rival proposal to build a second one at Gatwick airport, south of London. The long-delayed decision will give an overdue boost to the economy and shape British aviation for decades.

More runway capacity cannot arrive too soon. It has been needed since the 1990s, when Heathrow became full, says Tim Coombs of Aviation Economics, a consultancy. This year 75m passengers are forecast to use Heathrow’s two runways, which are operating at 99% of capacity. Gatwick’s single landing strip is now full most of the day too. Together they handle 45% of Britain’s air passengers.

Congestion increases delays, raises air fares and encourages travellers making connecting flights to use rival “hub” airports like Amsterdam or Dubai. Pricey tickets also deter businessfolk and tourists. Lack of airport capacity means Britain will miss out on trade worth £14 billion ($17 billion) over the next ten years, according to Frontier Economics, another consultancy.

In 2012 David Cameron handed the dilemma to a commission of experts led by Sir Howard Davies, to report after the 2015 general election. Sir Howard shortlisted three options: a new airstrip to the north-west of Heathrow, a runway extension there, or a new runway at Gatwick.

More capacity at Heathrow would restore its position as one of the world’s busiest airports (it currently lies sixth). This is more than a matter of national pride: by pooling passengers from around the world at Heathrow, airlines can offer flights to more places than they otherwise could.

But Gatwick’s promoters say they can get the same increase in runway capacity for around £9.3 billion, far less than Heathrow’s estimated price tag of £18.6 billion. It would need no public subsidy either, unlike Heathrow, which will run up a big bill in moving the M25 motorway and upgrading local transport links. Gatwick, surrounded by fields instead of London suburbs, would affect fewer people with noise and pollution, leaving it less open to legal challenge. But swayed by the wider choice of destinations offered by a bigger Heathrow, last year Sir Howard recommended it should get its third runway.

Mr Cameron delayed the decision three times, in part to avoid clashes with London’s mayoral election this May and the EU referendum in June. Environmental problems have also stymied progress. Previous attempts to expand Heathrow have been contested in court for breaking climate-change laws. This time the problem is that levels of nitrogen oxides, caused by vehicles servicing the airport, are breaching EU limits. But new research commissioned by the government has helpfully found that as car engines get cleaner, and measures such as congestion charging take effect, pollution around the airport will fall as Heathrow expands.

So now Mrs May is intent on getting the project off the ground. By pressing on with Heathrow, which most businesses favour over Gatwick, she will boost her pro-enterprise credentials, which have been damaged by her hardline approach to Brexit. With no general election due until 2020, and Labour hobbled by an unpopular leader, she can afford to annoy voters in marginal constituencies under Heathrow’s flight path.

Parliament, which is expected to be given a free vote on the matter later this month, also now favours Heathrow’s expansion. Several Tory MPs with constituencies near Heathrow oppose a new runway, including Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, who has promised to lie down in front of the bulldozers if it goes ahead. Yet the government should win the vote. It recently got the support of the Scottish National Party, which came out for Heathrow in the hope that it would most increase the number of flights to Scotland.

Brexit has strengthened the case, claims Heathrow’s boss, John Holland-Kaye. A third runway would help the airport offer more routes to cities in fast-growing economies such as China and India, which Britain will need to trade with more after leaving the EU. And it is better placed than Gatwick to boost trade. By value, 29% of Britain’s exports to outside the EU leave Heathrow, compared with 0.2% from Gatwick, which deals mainly with tourists.

Yet even after the bulldozers get going on Heathrow’s new landing strip, the government should leave the door open for other airports, including Gatwick and Stansted, to the north-east of London, to build new runways. Demand for air-passenger travel is growing far faster than Sir Howard forecast, says Nick Dunn, Gatwick’s chief financial officer. This year Gatwick will handle as many passengers as the Airports Commission predicted it would in 2034. A new runway is already needed if it is to increase its capacity at peak times. The airport’s owners want to press ahead with one even if Heathrow gets the nod. It would be no bad thing for Heathrow to face the added competition.

The government may offer a sweetener for Gatwick and Stansted to deter them from asking for a lengthy judicial review over the decision to expand Heathrow. Such legal problems are not new. Heathrow’s first two runways were built using emergency wartime powers; they would never have received permission otherwise, says Philip Sherwood, a historian of the airport who has lived in the area since it was still mainly fruit farms. Siting a new runway will never be easy, but with Labour in the doldrums and the public distracted by Brexit, the government has an opportunity to push it through. Mrs May should do so—and then start thinking about where to build the next one.

This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "Final call"

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