What does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the world?

By J.F.

IT IS hard to think of a president-elect less versed in the workings of the world than Donald Trump; or of one more willing to upturn the global order that America has shaped in the seven decades since the end of the second world war. He has so far described his foreign policy in only the vaguest terms, preferring such bumper-sticker slogans as “America First” to detailed plans. To the extent that it can be divined, his programme involves threatening to slap punitive tariffs on foreign imports in an attempt to rectify trade deficits; wringing payment from allies for the security that America provides them; and being nicer to strongmen such as Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. A good president, like a real-estate mogul, must be “prepared to walk” away from a bad deal; and it helps if he is “unpredictable”. In Mr Trump’s new politics of deliberate uncertainty, no treaty, international institution or alliance is sacrosanct.

In Europe, his victory has heartened the continent’s populists, such as Viktor Orban, Hungary’s noxious leader, and France's ultra-nationalist Marine Le Pen, who stands a fighting chance of being elected president next spring. (“Their world is collapsing; ours is being built,” tweeted her party’s strategist.) But his transactional view of security has frightened America’s NATO allies, and his admiration for Mr Putin—as well as his seeming indifference to Russia’s territory grab in Ukraine—has left frontline border states nervous. Estonia, fearing invasion, has begun encouraging its citizens to keep firearms in their houses and training them in insurgency tactics. Russia, meanwhile, is thrilled, not just because Mr Putin sees in Mr Trump a kindred (but weaker) spirit, but also because his victory discredits democracy, and the single biggest threat to Mr Putin’s rule: genuinely competitive elections.