How other countries would vote in the American election

By THE DATA TEAM

IT WAS never supposed to be this close. One candidate, Hillary Clinton, is a seasoned politician and one of the most powerful forces in her party. The other, Donald Trump, has no experience in office and is disliked by many Republican bigwigs. The results of such a lopsided contest should be clear. Yet, as the latest polls show, the presidential race is disturbingly close.

Over the past month, Mrs Clinton’s lead over Mr Trump has shrunk from seven percentage points to three. Betting markets now give Mr Trump a one-in-five chance of winning the election, while FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit, puts his odds at over one-in-four. Investors are rattled: the VIX, a measure of stockmarket uncertainty in America, is at its highest level since June, when Britain voted to leave the European Union.