How California offers glimmers of hope for Democrats

By S.N. | CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA

IN AN election that left Republicans in charge of the presidency, Congress, and many state governments, California shines like a ray of hope for Democrats. On the morning of November 9th, the state was even bluer than it was the day before. With 70% of the vote counted, Hillary Clinton was leading president-elect Donald Trump by 61.5% to 33%; in 2012, Barack Obama had 60% against Mitt Romney’s 37%. Long-time Republican strongholds, like mostly exurban Orange Country, voted for Mrs Clinton. Several districts are yet to be counted, but Democrats in the state assembly were on the verge of a two-thirds supermajority. Some inland and rural counties voted Republican, but California's ample population of coastal liberals and its many Hispanics—the state's largest single ethnic bloc—were firmly against Mr Trump. The heads of the two state legislatures put out a statement vowing to “lead the resistance to any effort that would shred our social fabric or our constitution.” They had woken up, the statement said, feeling like “strangers in a foreign land.”

Mrs Clinton's victory in the popular vote suggests that California may be a better distillation of America than the so-called “heartland.” Demographically, the state is still an outlier—non-Hispanic whites make up 64% of the national population; in California, whites constitute only 38%. But there is little question that America is moving in California's direction. Moderate California Republicans had long gritted their teeth at Mr Trump's populist election strategy, particularly his threats to deport illegal immigrants and his reference to “Mexican rapists,” fearing that the business mogul would turn them into a white identity party. They have had bitter experience of immigration politics. In 1994, California passed the Proposition 187 ballot initiative denying government services to illegal immigrants. Republicans hoped it would be a wedge issue, and it was one—but not to their advantage. Hispanics registered to vote, and voted Democrat. Republicans held just over two-fifths of the state's Congressional seats when Proposition 187 was passed. After this election, it will be around a quarter.