The Democratic dilemma

A SORT of fever grips the American left. With each grim headline for Donald Trump, or show of division among Republicans in Congress, excitement builds among those sworn to resist the president and his works. Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the popular vote in 2016, it is recalled—and that was before Mr Trump broke his promises. If the Democratic Party just picks fierier policies and more inspiring candidates, that anti-Trump majority will surely boil over, sweeping the right from power.

Moderate Democrats find this confidence alarming. A high-octane group of elected officials—including governors, members of Congress and city mayors—were joined by donors, the heads of progressive campaign groups and veterans of presidential campaigns at a retreat in the cool, mist-shrouded mountain resort of Aspen, Colorado on August 4th-5th. Hosted by Third Way, a centrist think-tank, the gathering pondered politics as it is, and not as ideologues wish it to be. The country is home to lots of people who dislike Mr Trump. But many are clustered in big cities, coastal states or college towns, blunting their electoral impact. In the election of 2016 Hillary Clinton outperformed her predecessor, Barack Obama, by 1.2m votes in California, Massachusetts and New York. Those three states, indeed, elected a third of all the Democrats in the House of Representatives. But in the other 47 states, Mrs Clinton underperformed Mr Obama by a total of 3.3m votes—and did especially badly in swing states that gave Mr Trump his improbable win.

As the Third Way retreat heard, the only quick route to Democratic dominance would involve the forced moving of millions of Americans. In the real world, political geography condemns Democrats to slog their way back to power in a daunting array of places: struggling rustbelt towns, thriving suburbs near such cities as Minneapolis or Philadelphia, fast-growing communities in the south-west. These regions have turned away from Democrats since Mr Obama won the presidency in 2008. The party has ceded dozens of seats in Congress and almost 1,000 seats in state legislatures. Republicans control 34 of 50 governors’ mansions.

A Democratic push for power will expose weaknesses within the anti-Trump majority. Lots of voters express doubts that the president shares their concerns. But even more say they think Democrats are out of touch with regular folk. In surveys, Democrats are seen as the party of government, and voters are far more likely to condemn big government than big business. Mr Trump’s approval numbers may be sliding, but Republicans are more trusted than Democrats to bring good jobs. That thought haunted the Third Way gathering Lexington attended as an observer.

The left longs to see Democrats use government’s powers to tackle income inequality, perhaps by backing higher minimum wages, a universal basic income, or by promising to make college tuition free, as Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont did during the presidential primary. Some seem to think the trick is to explain Democratic ideas more slowly and loudly. A high-profile darling of the grassroots, invited to Aspen, fretted that Democrats are losing a “messaging war” against such conservative donors as David and Charles Koch. Because of right-wing attacks, she lamented, “People think that what is good for them is actually bad for them.”

Others, notably politicians from swing states and regions where Democrats need moderate Republicans to win, retorted, in effect, that their party needs to stop telling voters “what is good for them”. One centrist told the gathering to ponder a shocking development: that their “party of the working class” is seen as “against jobs”. Several elected Democrats urged their party to step back, raise its sights and consider voters’ highest aspirations and greatest fears. It is right to campaign for a minimum wage, a politician said, “but I don’t know a single person that wants to earn a minimum wage.” Free college is a crowd-pleaser, but Democrats also need to win back factory towns where a skilled trade, not a university degree, is a cherished path to success.

No short cuts

Third Way’s own pitch involves tackling income inequality not as the final goal of policymaking, but as a symptom of a larger problem: the difficulty of building a good life filled with meaning, especially in left-behind bits of the country where too few jobs offer chances for training and self-improvement, or even simple dignity. The campaigning think-tank would like to see the left, right and centre wooed with an overarching message. Rather than stress ways to redistribute wealth, Third Way wants Democrats to offer an “opportunity to earn a good life”—a phrase intended to capture the central promise of American capitalism, in which a good life is made open to all, but must be earned.

This was a gathering of realists. Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado talked of working with business and non-profits on “trans-partisan” tasks like creating apprenticeships. Others called for Democrats not to be anti-business, but to return to their mid-20th-century identity as a party that stands with small business against overmighty corporate behemoths. Several suggested casting priorities such as climate change in concrete terms, for instance by stressing that jobs installing solar panels cannot be sent abroad. Strikingly, given the eagerness of some “Resistance” activists to stage purity contests at election-time, the heads of two prominent progressive groups said they saw no merit in demanding that all candidates, everywhere run on such issues as abortion rights. Governor John Bel Edwards of Louisiana bluntly told colleagues that if the national Democratic Party had not tolerated his views on abortion (anti) and gun rights (pro), he would not have won his conservative state and “would not be here today”.

Democrats are bracing for a circus-like presidential primary in 2020. Centrists will be attacked as sell-outs. Their urgent task is to avoid left-wing populism becoming the default option. For their party is in a deep hole, and no narrow path will lead them out.