Leaders | North Korea's missiles

Rocket man

Kim Jong Il is a threat to stability in Asia. He should be resisted—especially by China

|

THERE is no law against testing missiles, even far-flying ones intended to rattle nerves around the globe. Yet North Korea's attempted firework display, launching a Taepodong rocket (which fizzled) and half a dozen others (which worked) was calculated to blast a hole in the diplomatic effort by America, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia to get Kim Jong Il's regime to give up its nuclear bomb-building. The bigger worry is that this week's pyrotechnics will incinerate wider efforts to stabilise a region full of dangerous rivalries.

With its medieval economy and eccentric leader, the Hermit Kingdom often seems more tragi-comic than threatening. By many measures, North Korea is not even the most terrifying country in Asia; that dubious honour belongs to Pakistan (see leader and survey). Evil though Mr Kim undoubtedly is, the chief dangers his regime poses to outsiders are often accidental: that one of its rockets will unintentionally hit Japan, or that North Korea's economy will collapse (something that terrifies both China and South Korea). Mr Kim claimed that his previous launch—of a Taepodong missile over Japan in 1998—put into orbit a satellite which then warbled patriotic tunes back from space. In fact, although that rocket flew farther than this week's ones, its final stage plopped into the Pacific.

Mad, bad and actually rather dangerous

Yet there are still grounds for worry. Mr Kim would not be the first to claim a space programme as disguise for a weapons programme, and rockets that can lift other things into space can carry warheads too. His latest Taepodong missile, if it can be made to work, might reach parts of North America. It seems unlikely that North Korea would be able to put a nuclear warhead on such a device. But no one knows for sure—and North Korea has worked closely in missile and nuclear matters with Pakistan. A missile test may not be as frightening as the bomb test he contemplated doing last year, but this week's launch drew angry reactions from America, Russia, Japan and even South Korea, which usually glosses over Mr Kim's provocations in the hope of smoother North-South relations.

So what is Mr Kim up to? Miffed at America's recent crackdown on his kleptocratic regime's hard-currency take from dollar counterfeiting, drug running and the like, this week's display was partly a rocket-fuelled raspberry at George Bush. It may also partly have been intended as a technology demonstration for the few countries still in the market to buy North Korean missiles, such as Iran (if so, it did not work well). But Mr Kim's biggest target was surely the six-way talks; in particular, he wants to be treated more like Iran or, especially, India.

North Korea was offered economic and other inducements last September, provided it gave up its claimed clutch of bombs. That puts it broadly in the same category as Iran, which is suspected of having nuclear-weapons ambitions, and is mulling over a superior list of enticements from several European countries, America, Russia and China to give them up. India built its bombs years ago outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (unlike North Korea and Iran, which both signed the NPT and then cheated). It hopes the Bush administration can persuade Congress to ratify a foolish deal that would accord it all the civilian nuclear benefits available to the NPT's nuclear-free members while enabling it to continue its bomb-building. North Korea would like the same: to be accepted by America as a nuclear power and still rewarded.

That might seem crazy, especially given the likelihood of sanctions that can only cripple further North Korea's basket case of an economy. But Mr Kim calculates differently. He has always shown scant regard for the plight of his people, caring only for the security of his regime. He still expects to get a good two-thirds or more of the oil and food he needs from China—helping to stave off a return of the famine of the 1990s—and more dollops of aid from South Korea. And that, he knows, will infuriate the Americans.

That is how the wider damage could now be done. Ever since North Korea was caught cheating on its NPT promises for a second time (first making plutonium, later dabbling with another potential bomb ingredient, uranium), America has insisted on the six-way format for nuclear talks. By preventing North Korea playing its neighbours off against each other and America, this has cut Mr Kim's wiggle room. But a split has opened up. America and Japan have stood firm, pressing North Korea to give up its nuclear programmes (and, in Japan's case, to release more of the Japanese citizens abducted over the years by the Kim family regime) and withholding major aid until it does. South Korea and China have lately increased both trade and aid. If their plan was to coax Mr Kim into better behaviour, it has failed.

Where things go from here depends largely on China. North Korea's 1998 test blew a gaping hole in China's diplomacy in the region. It pushed Japan into co-operating even more closely with America on security matters, including on missile defences that some day might be extended to cover Taiwan. The latest test will reinforce Japan's readiness to do more in its own defence, and with America. And it is also a snub to China, which has been convening the six-way effort.

Reasons to stick together

The temptation for a wounded China will be to blame all this on America and Japan. China does not want to antagonise the unpredictable Mr Kim; and it is keen to draw South Korea closer in the game of regional rivalries (both countries have rows with Japan over disputed islands). The result could be a new round of regional suspicion and rivalry—or worse.

Alternatively China could shoulder some real responsibility for security in East Asia and close ranks against Mr Kim. That should start with a clear condemnation from the UN Security Council. But it should go further. Loth to apply sanctions, China props up Mr Kim's regime. Holding back some of that largesse would show him that he cannot destabilise the neighbourhood and get away with it. A lot more than the awkward Mr Kim's future depends on it.

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Rocket man"

Rocket man

From the July 8th 2006 edition

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

Explore the edition

Discover more

Oil’s endgame could be highly disruptive

The oil shocks of the future will be driven by demand, not supply

The Gulf’s scramble for Africa is reshaping the continent

Its increased influence brings economic rewards and political risks


Making sense of the gulf between young men and women

It’s complicated. But better schooling for boys might help