Australia was the first country to deregulate gambling, and it shows
By THE DATA TEAM
LAS VEGAS may be synonymous with gambling, but the industry’s biggest expo is actually held in London, and wraps up today. Exhibitors in over 3,000 stands advertise the latest products designed to part punters from their cash, ranging from gaming apps to slot machines and virtual-reality games. As in other businesses, firms that were quick to embrace new technology have reaped rewards: online gaming is the industry’s fastest-growing sector, and accounted for 11% of the $385bn of gambling profits posted in 2016. But unlike companies that sell less controversial services, courting government regulators appears to be just as important as luring bettors for the bottom line.
To the general public, Australia hardly leaps to mind as a gambling hotbed. Yet industry insiders know it is far and away their most lucrative market: according to H2 Gambling Capital (H2G), a consultancy, betting losses per resident adult there amounted to $990 last year. That is 40% higher than Singapore, the runner-up, and around double the average in other Western countries. The most popular form of gaming in Australia is on ubiquitous electronic poker machines, or “pokies”, which are more prevalent there than anywhere else. Although the devices are legal in many other markets, bet sizes are usually capped at modest levels. By contrast, in Australia, which began to deregulate the industry in the 1980s, punters can lose as much as $1,150 an hour.
Despite Australia’s profitability, the high level of existing gambling penetration and relatively small population of 23m make it a relatively mature market without much room for expansion. The biggest prize by far is the United States, where bettors’ total losses reached $117bn last year. The untapped potential is enormous: Americans wagered $150bn illegally on sports alone last year, by one estimate. However, the country’s Puritan tendencies have kept the industry’s growth in check, and spending per person has remained static for a decade. Online gaming, which accounts for a third of spending in some countries, is legal in just three states after a federal clampdown in 2011, while sports betting is fully legal in just one. As a result, Ireland and Finland, which have opened up online markets, recently overtook America in spending per person. Singapore also keeps a tight lid on the range of legal betting options, and has seen industry revenues fall off as a result.
A different type of regulation has curbed gaming in China. Just three years ago, H2G expected China (including Macau and Hong Kong) to surpass America as the world’s biggest market in 2020. But in 2013 the government announced a crackdown on corruption, which prevented Chinese government officials from entertaining in the casinos of Macau. The industry’s profits in China promptly fell by 20%, and have barely recovered. That precipitous decline caused overall global winnings to drop in 2015—the first dip since 2003, when H2G’s data begin.
In contrast, gaming firms may be set to hit the jackpot in Japan. Although the country is still the world’s third-largest gambling market, annual revenues have been declining steadily since 2003 amid tight regulation. Ingenious firms have come up with work-arounds to remain within the law: pachinko, a popular game akin to pinball, avoids being classified as gambling by giving “special prizes”, which can be traded for cash at kiosks separate from the pachinko parlours. Such subterfuge may no longer be necessary, thanks to a law passed in December that will permit casinos for the first time. Foreign operators are expected to line up to build them. H2G estimates that they could swell winnings by 50% in the first year of opening. That is good news for the industry, if not for Japanese punters’ wallets.
