Closing its doors to refugees is unlikely to make America safer

“IT’S big stuff,” boasted Donald Trump as he signed the executive order entitled “Protecting the nation from foreign terrorist entry into the United States”. The order suspends entry by citizens of seven mostly Muslim-majority countries (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Libya and Somalia) for 90 days; halts all refugee admissions for 120 days; and bans Syrian refugees indefinitely. It looks unlikely to make America markedly safer, and by stoking resentment it could indirectly do the reverse.

Terrorism is a threat to America. Some of the seven countries subject to Mr Trump’s ban are fighting against jihadists of Islamic State and al-Qaeda, which is why some visa restrictions were imposed on them by the Obama administration. According to Charles Kurzman at the University of North Carolina, 23% of Muslim-Americans associated with violent extremism since 2001 had family links to those countries.

Yet in the past decade there have been few terrorist attacks committed by foreigners in America, and none of them have involved nationals from the seven affected countries. Nor have any deaths in America been caused by terrorists with family ties to those countries (see chart). The 12 deadly acts of terrorism committed by Muslims on American soil since September 11th 2001 have been by American citizens or legal residents, according to New America, a think-tank. The September 11th murderers were from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Lebanon, none of which are subject to the ban.

Refugees are particularly unlikely to be a threat. Of the nearly 3.3m refugees admitted to America between 1975 and 2015, only 20 have attempted a terrorist attack. In those attacks three Americans were killed, according to the Cato Institute, a think-tank.

Syrian refugees who gain admittance to America, most of whom are women and children, have to have their status determined by the UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, and go through a lengthy screening process, mostly in camps in Turkey, Lebanon or Jordan. In 2011 only 23 Syrian refugees managed to run this gauntlet; by 2014 the number had edged up to 249. In 2015, as the war in Syria raged on and as Europe admitted hundreds of thousands, the number rose to 2,192, and last year 15,479 of the 85,000 refugees admitted to America came from Syria. (Of that total 46% were Muslim and 44% were Christian.) The UNHCR estimates that some 20,000 refugees will now be affected by Mr Trump’s actions.

Though its protective effects may be minimal, the executive order seems likely to stoke resentment among radicalised young Muslims in America and countries as yet unbanned. It may also put at risk American troops in the Middle East, including the thousands deployed in Iraq and Syria to fight the Islamic State.