The vote today has garnered far more international interest than the lowlanders are used to. One question is whether an escalating diplomatic spat between Turkey and the Netherlands pushes voters into the arms of Geert Wilders, an anti-Islam firebrand, or helps the sitting prime minister, Mark Rutte, who is seen as having handled the crisis well. Victory for Mr Wilders would be a win for populism that many would see as an encouraging sign for Marine Le Pen, a right-wing candidate in France’s upcoming presidential election. The most likely scenario, however, is that Mr Rutte continues in his job, because no major party has the stomach to govern alongside Mr Wilders, even if his PVV becomes the largest in parliament. But this election is about more than these two men: with 28 parties on the ballot and several mid-sized ones expected to do well, whoever steps up to form a coalition will have his work cut out.