Brexit: Not so hard but not so easy

By THE DATA TEAM

A NEW report by Britain's National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) shows that the public’s expectation of what Brexit means is more complex than can be deduced by the simple in/out voting choice offered in last June’s referendum. Although the vote split the country crudely into Leavers and Remainers, the survey shows that agreement between the two groups is closer on “soft” than on “hard” Brexit options.

NatCen avoided technical expressions such as “single market” and “freedom of movement”, choosing everyday language. Subjects were asked whether they were in favour of such things as allowing banks to provide services irrespective of their location, or allowing companies to sell goods and services freely between EU countries—characteristics of a soft Brexit. They were also asked whether they approved of policies such as treating EU migrants the same way as non-EU migrants, or restricting welfare benefits to other EU citizens, which more closely resemble a hard Brexit.

Leavers and Remainers were most aligned when it came to answering the “soft” questions. Around 90% want free trade, the highest favourability and the narrowest difference on any question between the two groups. It is the single most popular issue, trumping even border controls for Leave voters. With so many Leavers supporting free trade, which Brexit imperils, it seems that when they voted in the referendum they either didn’t understand the implications of their choice, or have now changed their minds.

The differences of opinion are starker when “hard” Brexit questions are asked. The gap between Leave and Remain voters was up to a third on the main hard-Brexit issue of immigration controls. Some 86% of Leave voters support strong measures compared with 54% of Remainers.

Compared with NatCen’s earlier report in November, this latest survey shows a certain amount of stability in public opinion. It gives a good indication of what British voters want from Brexit, but unfortunately their demands are often unrealistic. Leave voters, especially, want to retain the benefits of membership, but do away with things they dislike. Managing their expectations during the coming negotiation will not be easy.