The EU27 and the Brexit negotiations

By THE DATA TEAM

MOST EU member states believe that Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc must be costly, and that any future trade arrangement must offer the departing country worse terms than full membership did. An index devised by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), our sister company, gauges the views of EU states on the four core negotiating issues: the amount of money Britain will have to pay to leave; the four EU freedoms (movement of goods, services, workers and capital); trade arrangements and tariff barriers; and defence ties. The EIU’s analysts have assessed the stance of each of the EU members to generate a score out of 40, and then classified the countries into three clusters: “hard-core”, “hard” and “soft”.

Of the seven “hard-core” countries, the sternest of all is France, which has the highest score in the index at 32.5. This cluster mixes the traditional Anglophobes, Belgium and France, with the poorest member states, Bulgaria and Romania, who are concerned about both free movement and the budget. It also includes Germany, which sees itself as the custodian of the EU’s future cohesion.

A plurality of countries fall into the 12-member “hard” category, with scores of 25‑30, which indicate fairly strong opposition to Britain’s position. The final eight EU members, with scores below 25, make up the “soft” category. They include some which share Britain’s liberal position on trade and EU regulation—such as Sweden and Denmark. It also includes Ireland, with whom Britain has close historical and trade ties. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Poland, which are most exposed to threats from Russia, put a premium on Britain’s contribution to the defence and security of the continent.

Nonetheless, even the countries most sympathetic to Britain have limits on how generous they will allow the terms of Brexit to be. If nothing else, the importance of maintaining warm relations with the remaining EU members will dissuade them from undermining the group’s overall negotiating position. For a more detailed analysis of the positions likely to be adopted by the EU27, see the full EIU report here.