What did Donald Trump achieve in the Middle East?

AS DONALD TRUMP set off on his first foreign trip since taking office, to the world’s most unstable and dangerous region, some observers were worried. As it turned out, though, the Middle Eastern leg of Mr Trump’s nine-day maiden voyage was one of the less tumultuous periods of his presidency so far. Nonetheless, with a further tilt towards Saudi Arabia and the Sunnis, and against Iran and the Shias, the president has increased, not smoothed, the tensions that so bedevil the area.

In Riyadh, where he arrived on May 20th, Mr Trump attempted to reset his relationship with the Muslim world, strained by his own Islamophobic rhetoric. “I think Islam hates us,” he said last year, after calling for a blanket ban on Muslims entering America. But in a speech on May 21st he declared that the fight against extremism is “a battle between good and evil”, not “between different faiths”. Blaming most of the region’s problems on terrorism, he urged his audience of Sunni Muslim leaders to “drive out” extremists. “Drive them out,” he repeated, five times.

The message went down well. The audience, consisting mostly of autocrats and dictators, spouted gushers of flattery. “You are a unique personality that is capable of doing the impossible,” said Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s president. “I agree,” said Mr Trump, whose mood may have been lifted by the gigantic portraits of himself that his hosts had put up all around Riyadh. He made clear that, unlike his predecessor, he would not press Arab leaders on such matters as human rights, so long as they see eye to eye with him on security and commerce. “We are not here to lecture,” he said.

Mr Trump announced the sale of military equipment worth $110bn to Saudi Arabia, the opening of a new centre in Riyadh to combat extremist ideology and another that will target terrorist financing. Yet behind the smiles, there is tension. The kingdom, which Mr Trump once called “the world’s biggest funder of terrorism”, has spent billions of dollars spreading its ultra-conservative brand of Islam. Some say that Mr Trump’s strategy is short-sighted. Arab autocrats offer stability, “but only by brutal suppression of dissidents, whose resentment ultimately helps breed more terrorists”, says Mustafa Akyol of Wellesley College in America.

Though he pleased his hosts, Mr Trump also inflamed sectarian tensions by blaming their rival, Iran, for most of the Middle East’s problems. “From Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen, Iran funds, arms and trains terrorists, militias and other extremist groups that spread destruction and chaos across the region,” said the president. Much of that criticism is warranted, but the fact remains that most of the jihadists in the Middle East are Sunni, not Shia. Moreover, as Mr Trump arrived in Riyadh, Iranians re-elected Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate, as their president. “Iran—fresh from real elections—attacked by [Mr Trump] in that bastion of democracy & moderation,” wrote Iran’s foreign minister on Twitter, referring to Saudi Arabia.

In many ways, Mr Trump’s trip to Riyadh reflected an attempt to break with the foreign policy of Barack Obama, who in 2015 struck a deal with Mr Rouhani’s Iran to curb Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. The realignment upset the Saudis, who gave Mr Obama a cool welcome on his last trip to the kingdom. By contrast, Mr Trump was greeted by King Salman with lavish pageantry involving dancing, swords and a mysterious glowing globe (pictured).

In practice, though, less has so far changed that it might seem. Mr Trump has not yet ripped up the nuclear deal, which he once called the “worst deal in history”, but which his administration says Iran is honouring. Just before he arrived, he extended a waiver on (separate) sanctions on Iran. And, like Mr Obama, he said he would avoid “sudden interventions” in the region. Many of the arms sales celebrated by Mr Trump had actually been negotiated under his predecessor. Mr Obama, though, had put much of the package on hold, fearing that American arms would be used to kill civilians in Yemen and might accelerate the arms race with Iran.

Is that all there is?

Mr Trump then moved on, arriving in Israel on May 22nd. Even before his inauguration, he had spoken of his desire, as a master negotiator, to deliver what he calls the “ultimate deal”—peace between Israel and the Palestinians. However, he supplied no detail as to how this might be achieved. Not once during his trip did he mention in public the “two-state solution”, under which Israel and Palestine would recognise each other as sovereign entities.

He said nothing about Israel’s settlement-building in the occupied West Bank, nor about its iron control over the lives of Palestinians there and in the beleaguered Gaza Strip. In Bethlehem Mr Trump lectured Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, that “peace can never take root in an environment where violence is tolerated, funded and even rewarded.” In his speeches in Jerusalem he made do with vague platitudes about how “both Israelis and Palestinians seek lives of hope for their children.”

Israeli and American officials insisted that in closed talks the president had insisted that he is serious about making peace. But for now at least, he seems to be content with letting the two sides work out the details for themselves. Many observers, perhaps naively, had expected some sign of increased pressure on Israel to make compromises. Mr Trump gave no hint of that.

The president did make one concession to the Palestinians, which will have come as a disappointment to the more hawkish elements in the ruling coalition. He pointedly ignored requests to recognise implicitly Israeli sovereignty over the eastern part of Jerusalem, captured 50 years ago next month. Israeli officials were not invited to join him on a visit to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre and the Western Wall in Jerusalem’s Old City. Neither did he show any indication of being ready to fulfil a campaign promise to move America’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Still, there was plenty in Mr Trump’s statements, during a visit that lasted little more than 24 hours, that was music to Mr Netanyahu’s ears. He extolled “the unbreakable spirit” and “the accomplishments of the Jewish people”; and spoke of Israel and America’s “shared values”. He promised that while “Iran’s leaders routinely call for Israel’s destruction—not with Donald J. Trump. Believe me.”

Going off-script in one of his speeches, Mr Trump contrasted his support for Israel with the previous administration’s coolness, saying it was a “big, big, beautiful difference”. During Mr Obama’s presidency, despite his rocky personal relationship with Mr Netanyahu and their deep disagreement over the Iran deal, Israel enjoyed unprecedented levels of American military aid and intelligence-sharing. But the Obama administration also worked tirelessly to push forward the diplomatic process with the Palestinians, without result. The lavish praise and unspecific promises of Mr Trump probably mean that Mr Netanyahu can now give his heels a rest from digging in.