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British voters refuse to give the Conservatives a mandate

Another election may follow later this year

By THE DATA TEAM

UK politicsRead more British election coverageTHERESA MAY’s political career is in jeopardy after her Conservative Party suffered a disastrous upset in yesterday’s snap election. Instead of the stronger majority the prime minister was expecting, voters returned a hung parliament, in which no party commands a majority. Were she to step down now, Mrs May would have the shortest tenure since the hapless Andrew Bonar Law. His seven months in office, in 1922-23, earned him the sobriquet of “the unknown prime minister”. With just a few stragglers yet to declare their results it appears that, although the Conservative Party has remained the top vote-getter, it has shed over a dozen MPs. It was also a hard night for Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, who lost 21 seats (about 40% of her total). The clear winner of the evening was Jeremy Corbyn, who defied expectations of the pollsters and pundits to parlay Labour’s seemingly doomed position at the start of the campaign into a cool 30-seat gain. Even though Labour recorded its biggest percentage point gain in vote share since 1945, it notched up its second-lowest tally of seats since 1987. Britain’s decision to leave the EU last June created a gaping hole in the centre of politics. The election has only worsened that divide—the two parties have hoovered up 82% of the national vote, more than at any point since 1979. Because of Britain’s first-past-the-post system, this ensures that most minority parties are shut out of parliament. Similarly, though the Liberal Democrats picked up a few more constituencies than some expected, they remain marginal.Betting markets had been bullish about a Conservative majority. But after a shock exit poll predicted the Tories on just 314 seats, they reacted savagely. They vacillated on slightly better early results for Mrs May and, when the accuracy of the exit poll was confirmed, punters ditched their positions en masse.The shadow of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) loomed over the election. Now that Britain is set to leave the European Union in two years’ time, it has achieved its aim. But that left its votes up for grabs. Parliamentary constituencies that overwhelmingly voted Leave in last year’s referendum largely ditched UKIP candidates in favour of Tories. The Lib Dems, who hoped to pick up the support of disenchanted Remainers keen on a second referendum, were dismayed to see that even the most Europhile constituencies did not budge at all. Likewise, Labour’s surges did not vary much with the Brexit vote. Pollsters had another poor showing, after botching the previous general election and misfiring on the Brexit referendum. An average of polls showed the Tories up a healthy 8.3 percentage points in the national vote share. The final result was a much narrower 2.3 points. That six-point bungle is almost as large as in the much-criticised performance in 2015. Yet again, the British Polling Council seems certain to look into what went wrong.Speculation now turns to who will form a government, and how. As both the largest and the incumbent party in Westminster, the Conservatives will have the first attempt. If Britain ends up with an unruly minority Conservative government dogged by an emboldened Labour opposition, the fearsomely complex Brexit negotiations, due to begin in just 11 days, will become even more difficult.
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