Syria’s multi-sided war escalates yet again

ON JUNE 18th the unexpected happened. For the first time since America’s involvement in the skies over Kosovo 18 years ago, an American fighter plane shot down a hostile jet. America targeted the Syrian plane after it bombed American-backed forces battling to drive the jihadists of Islamic State (IS) from their capital in the Syrian city of Raqqa.

The downing of the Syrian plane and a string of recent air strikes and skirmishes between ground forces backed by America and Iran, have opened a new chapter in the multi-sided Syrian war. This raises concerns of further escalation in a conflict that has already sucked in neighbours and regional powers. Russia, enraged by the attack on the regime it supports, threatened in retaliation to track American warplanes with its missile systems should their pilots stray west of the Euphrates river. And Iran, which already supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator, with ground troops, escalated its involvement on June 18th by firing a volley of ballistic missiles into a city in eastern Syria controlled by IS.

Behind these shows of force is a desperate race between an emboldened Syrian regime (and its Russian and Iranian allies) and American-backed forces to grab the rump of territory controlled by a faltering IS along Syria’s border with Iraq. It is a race that America and its allies may lose.

On June 9th the Syrian army and Iranian-backed militiamen reached the border with Iraq for the first time since 2015. Meanwhile, in Iraq, yet more Iranian-backed fighters are pushing south along the border through IS territory to link up with their allies in Syria. If they succeed, Iran will have secured a major objective: control over a land corridor that runs from Tehran to Beirut, via Iraq and Syria (see map).

Gaining a land bridge will allow Iran to increase its already substantial shipments of arms to its Lebanese ally, Hizbullah, a militia and political party. It will also make it easier for the Syrian regime and Iran to co-ordinate with Iraq’s Shia militias as the regime’s forces push deeper into the oil-rich province of Deir Ezzor. This is one of IS’s last strongholds and was a bedrock of the Syrian economy before the war.

Iran’s gambit in the east will worry hawks in President Donald Trump’s administration, who argue that Iranian influence in Syria and the wider Middle East needs to be resisted. It also may stymie an attempt by American-backed Syrian rebels to push into Deir Ezzor from the south.

So far, America has shown little appetite for countering Iran’s desert manoeuvres. American warplanes have bombed Iranian-backed militias twice since May 18th and shot down two Iranian-made drones close to a remote garrison at Al Tanf used by American and British special forces. But, as with the downing of the Syrian air force jet, America says it carried out the strikes in self-defence and that they do not signal a broader strategy to confront Iran, the Syrian regime or Russia.

Yet there is also little Washington can do to push back Iran or the regime without inflaming the conflict and hindering the fight against IS. Iran’s presence in Syria is formidable. It has poured in thousands of militiamen from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and propped up the regime with billions of dollars in loans. Iranian firms have won fat contracts in telecoms, mining, agriculture, oil and gas.

America’s plan to contain Iran thus hinges on enlisting the help of Russia. It hopes to establish a buffer zone in southern Syria along the border with Israel and Jordan that is free of Iranian-backed forces. That may partly be to avert yet another possible cross-border conflict. Israel has repeatedly said it will not tolerate Iranian-backed militias on the Golan Heights, part of which was captured by Israel in 1967. It has reinforced this unofficial red line with air strikes on Syrian and Iranian-backed forces in the area.

As Syria’s border regions become ever more congested with combatants, the risk of an unintentional escalation is increasing. Peace is nowhere in sight.