How Poland’s government is weakening democracy

By A.C. | WARSAW

POLAND was the big success story of Europe after 1989. Its peaceful transition from communism, culminating in membership of the European Union in 2004, was an example for countries farther east to emulate. But recently, it has been backsliding. Since coming to power in 2015, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS in Polish) has been weakening democratic checks and balances. PiS has followed in the footsteps of Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, whom its leader openly admires. Brussels has struggled to respond effectively. Yet Poland is too big to lose: it is a frontline country on NATO’s eastern edge and will be the EU’s seventh-largest economy after Brexit. What is PiS doing?

PiS came to power promising change after eight years in opposition. Shortly before the elections, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, its divisive leader, called for “a reconstruction of the state”. In practice, that has meant subordinating it to PiS. The party has used its majority in parliament to push through controversial laws, though it does not have enough seats to formally change the constitution. The prime minister, Beata Szydlo, has little clout. From PiS’s headquarters in Warsaw, Mr Kaczynski pulls the strings.

PiS acted swiftly, echoing earlier changes in Hungary. Its first targets were the constitutional court and the public broadcasters; both have been packed with loyalists. Most recently, PiS has been putting courts under its control; a new law passed last week allows the government to sack the Supreme Court’s judges. The implications could be long-lasting: among other responsibilities, the Supreme Court rules on the validity of elections. (Mr Kaczynski reassured Poles that there will still be “normal” polls.) Democrats at home and abroad are alarmed. In towns across Poland, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the street demanding “free courts”. Officials in Washington and Brussels are worried, too. The European Commission has warned that it is “very close” to triggering Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty, paving the way for sanctions on Poland (though Mr Orban would probably block them).

On July 24th Andrzej Duda, Poland’s president, said that he would veto the law on the Supreme Court, suggesting that the protests have worked. Yet PiS does not give up easily. The precise nature of his veto is also unclear. Even if the centrist opposition wins the next elections, due in 2019, the damage to Poland’s institutions could take years to reverse. Meanwhile, Poland may set a dangerous precedent, emboldening illiberal leaders in Europe and beyond. The Polish and Hungarian cases suggest that the EU can do little to enforce democracy in countries that are already members. The latest changes push Poland “backwards and eastwards”, said Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, and the country’s prime minister from 2007 to 2014, in a statement last week. If democracy in Poland unravels, it will be felt around the world. Autocrats, from Moscow through Ankara and beyond, will rejoice.