German voters face a bewildering array of possible coalitions

HER FRIENDS would kill her if they knew she had considered voting for the Free Democrats (FDP), says Marijana, a 39-year-old arts PR consultant. A lifelong supporter of the left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD), she had always dismissed the FDP, a small, liberal outfit, as a party for the wealthy few. But Germany’s wide-open election on September 26th is forcing voters to contemplate strange choices. Marijana fears the SPD may join the hard-left Die Linke, which she reckons is unprepared for government, as well as the Greens in a left-wing coalition. Hence the idea of lending one of her votes to the FDP, to bolster the chances of an SPD-Green-FDP “traffic-light” coalition. (Germans get two votes: one for a local MP, and one for a party, apportioned proportionally based on lists.)

If Germany’s election campaign has hardly been fizzing with ideas, the volatility of the polls has provided tremendous sport. Three different parties have led in the past four months. Having long languished in the polls, the SPD has recently surged. The Economist’s election model now puts its chances of coming first at around two-thirds. A big lump of undecided voters, and what may be the largest-ever postal vote, add to the uncertainty. Yet in Germany’s proportional voting system the horse race is only half the story. The coalition wrangles that follow election day will be at least as important, and twice as complex, as the voting that happens on it.