The iPad is a success, but other tablets may not be

Not written in stone

The future of the tablet computer - Not written in stone | Business | The Economist

Both are grappling with gloomy consumers at home and trouble abroad

What do Joe Biden and the boss of Starbucks have in common?

Companies that get it wrong risk both derision and outrage

How not to name a new car

It sees a big opportunity in an old technology

Meet the Swedish firm trying to shake up heat pumps

How to be a good follower

The backlash over a series of viral videos says a lot about shifting attitudes

China’s youth are rebelling against long hours

Business

Reaching for a longer spoon

Hole below the water

Digging in a minefield

Redress by relocation

In two minds

span

gv_safe

future_of_work_test

gb_safe

gb_safe_from_high

gb_safe_from_high_med

pos_goldman_inclusion_2024

pos_israel-hamas_war

gs_tech_computing

ibm_cloud

ts_tech

THE iPad, Apple's latest gadget, seems to have lived up to its maker's lofty expectations: 2m of them have been sold in two months, with more presumably to follow after the device's debut outside America on May 28th. But will the iPad's success trigger explosive growth for other sorts of “tablet” computers, a category that had previously been seen a sideshow, much as the iPhone did for smart-phones?

 The answer appears to be yes, if the proliferation of tablets at Computex, a trade show held this week in Taiwan, is anything to judge by. The exhibition floor was teeming with prototypes, especially from Taiwanese firms such as Acer and Asustek. Dell, an American rival, had unveiled its offering, Streak, a few days earlier. Even Google and One Laptop per Child, a charity, have tablets in the works.

Yet the flurry of activity is deceptive. Not all the computer-makers rushing to produce tablets are convinced they will be a huge success; they are simply hedging their bets after their failure, in many cases, to predict the popularity of netbooks (no-frills laptops), which shot to success in 2008. Tellingly, most of the new devices will not hit the stores before the end of the year, if not later.

 It is still unclear what people will use tablets for, says Jeff Orr of ABI Research. They are unlikely to edge out established devices such as televisions, personal computers, games consoles and smart-phones. Most buyers so far have been habitual early-adopters of new gadgets. But tablets may find a niche, he believes, as portable video players and magazine racks. 

Much will depend on price. The cheapest iPad costs $499. For tablets to become a mass-market product like DVD players, analysts reckon, the price must fall to $100 at most. Some iPad clones are to be sold at this level, but they lack many of its most attractive features. Fancier tablets could become cheaper, however, if mobile-telecoms operators were to subsidise them, as they do with handsets.

This points to another barrier. To maximise their usefulness, tablets need a fast wireless-internet connection. But so far only a third of American households have Wi-Fi, reckons ABI Research. And mobile-data services are not getting cheaper, at least for heavy users. On June 2nd AT&amp;T ditched its all-you-can-eat plan for iPads, which cost $30 a month, and replaced it with tiered rates. 

What is more, tablets are less about hardware than about the software and services that run on them. Users of iPads can already download more than 5,000 applications from Apple's online store. Such variety is a distant prospect for owners of tablets powered by other operating systems, such as Google's Android. Yet the more competition there is among operating systems and devices, the more common tablets are likely to become.

Some of the most muscular players in the industry are still in the locker room. Hewlett-Packard is said to have killed the Slate, which was to be based on Microsoft's Windows, and is now reportedly working on a tablet using an operating system from Palm, the smart-phone maker that HP recently bought. Microsoft will certainly re-enter the fray, although none of its operating systems seems a good fit for tablets. Nokia, too, has yet to unveil its plans.

ABI Research thinks only 8m will be sold worldwide this year and that they will not become a mass-market device before the middle of the decade, by which time it foresees annual sales of 57m. Even this would be less than the number of netbooks expected to be sold this year. And it is not even a third of the global market for smart-phones in 2009. 

But tablets may still have a big impact, argues Carolina Milanesi of Gartner, another research firm. Television-makers, for instance, may introduce more interactive features and computer-makers launch app stores in response. All very gratifying for tablet manufacturers, no doubt, but not exactly a money-spinner. 

The future of the tablet computer

Get to grips with a region where capital, climate and geopolitics collide

Go deeper with our Middle East newsletter. Every week our correspondents delve into the political, social and economic stories of a region that is rarely out of the news.

Sign up to our Middle East newsletter

Middle East Dispatch

Follow the action in Latin America, from the depths of the Brazilian Amazon to the Mexican-American border

Every week our correspondents share insights on politics, economics and business from an increasingly complex region

Stay informed with our weekly Latin America newsletter

El Boletín

A sharp round-up of the most important US political news

Sign up for updates from our correspondents and data journalists, poll tracker and election-forecast model as the 2024 race unfolds

The US in brief

Inside Europe, from the front lines in Ukraine to the corridors of power in Brussels

Stay informed with our weekly Europe newsletter

Café Europa

Understand a vast and complicated country that will increasingly shape the future

Stay informed with our weekly India newsletter

Essential India

The best of The Economist’s defence coverage, in one place

The War Room

A weekly conversation about culture. Because culture is a serious business

Exploring trends and connections across entertainment, the arts and politics

Broaden your perspective with our weekly culture newsletter

Plot Twist

Analysing the challenges facing Britain and what needs to be done to overcome them

Stay informed with our weekly Britain newsletter

Blighty

Understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world

Stay informed with our weekly China newsletter

Drum Tower

Your essential guide to global business and technology

From supply chains to semiconductors, The Bottom Line newsletter has you covered

Need to track the megatrends shaping business and technology?

The Bottom Line

Catch up quickly on the global stories that matter

Sign up to enjoy a mind-expanding mix of stories, delivered six days a week

Catch up quickly on the stories that matter

The World in Brief

A behind-the-scenes look at how we chose and designed this week’s cover

How we chose this week’s cover image

Cover Story

Exclusive insight from our correspondents in America

Exclusive insight and reading recommendations from our correspondents in America

Checks and Balance

A weekly fix of our mind-expanding science coverage

Curious about the world? Enjoy a weekly fix of our mind-expanding science coverage

Simply Science

Climate-change analysis that you won’t read elsewhere in The Economist

The Climate Issue

Expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics and markets

Money Talks

Taking you behind the scenes of our data journalism

Off the Charts

Long reads and life from 1843 magazine

The Extraordinary Story

The very best of our journalism, handpicked for you each weekday

A daily newsletter with the best of our journalism

Handpicked stories, in your inbox

The Economist today

Highlights from the latest weekly issue, introduced by our editor

Not written in stone

The iPad is a success, but other tablets may not be

Business June 5th 2010

From the June 5th 2010 edition

More from Business

What do Joe Biden and the boss of Starbucks have in common?

How not to name a new car

Meet the Swedish firm trying to shake up heat pumps