Parties, politics and potential collapse

By D.G. | JOHANNESBURG

THE African National Congress (ANC), the continent's oldest liberation movement, kicks off the new year with celebrations on January 8th to mark the centenary of its foundation in Bloemfontein, now also known by its African name of Mangaung. Some 100,000 members of South Africa's ruling party are expected to attend along with 46 foreign heads of state and other dignitaries. Not a room is to be had within a 100km radius of the Free State capital.

Self-congratulatory celebrations are due to continue throughout the year leading up to the ANC's national conference, held once every five years, to elect new leaders. The last time such a conference was held, in Polokwane in 2007, then-president Thabo Mbeki was unceremoniously ousted by Jacob Zuma (pictured, left) as the party's leader before being “recalled” as the country's president in September 2008, six months before his mandate was due to expire. It is now Mr Zuma's turn to fight for his own political survival. Political infighting and manoeuvring between rival factions will continue all year.

In neighbouring Zimbabwe 87-year-old President Robert Mugabe (pictured, right), newly re-endorsed as his Zanu-PF party's presidential candidate, continues to press for fresh elections this year despite the continuing lawlessness, violence and widespread intimidation of political opponents, human-rights activists and journalists. But a new constitution, still in the process of being drafted, has to be approved before any new poll can be held, first in a referendum and then by parliament. So elections are unlikely to be held before early 2013, by which time Mr Mugabe's deteriorating health may prevent him from standing again.

In oil-rich AngolaPresident José Edouardo Dos Santos has called for presidential elections in the third quarter of this year—the first since he came to power 33 years ago. But voters are sceptical. Under the country's new constitution, elections do not have to be held until 2013. The 69-year-old Mr Dos Santos, Africa's longest-serving head of state following the demise of Libya's Muammar Qaddafi in October, has not yet said whether he himself will stand. Over the past six months, youths have been taking to the streets to protest against his authoritarian rule and demand he step down. But so far these have been small and failed to spread following a severe police repression.

The impoverished Indian Ocean island of Madagascar, where André Rajoelina has been in power since a military coup three years ago, is also due to hold elections this year. Under the terms of an electoral “roadmap”, mediated by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a 15-member regional club, and signed by all but one of the main parties last September, all exiled leaders are supposed to be allowed to return “unconditionally” to the island. But Marc Ravalomanana, the former president ousted by Mr Rajoelina and now living in exile in South Africa, is being threatened with arrest as soon as he resets foot on Madagascan soil. He was sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment two years ago for his part in the massacre of unarmed protesters in 2009. Mr Rajoelina has said he wants elections to be held by May. Only then can Madagascar hope to see the resumption of the Western foreign aid it so desperately needs. But SADC may insist on Mr Ravalomanana's safe return first.

In Zambia, the copper-rich country's controversial new president, Michel Sata, is likely to come under increased scrutiny following the completion of his first 90 days in office. During his campaign, he pledged to carry out all his main election promises during that period. Although he has started dealing with rampant corruption in the public sector and has passed several pro-poor measures, including cutting taxes for low earners, he has unsettled investors by doubling mineral royalties, sacking the governor of the central bank, and blocking a previously agreed sale of a state-owned bank. But the one-time fierce critic of Chinese employers is now going out of his way to woo Zambia's biggest foreign investors—with some success.

Meanwhile, neighbouring Malawi teeters on the edge of economic and political collapse. Last year's mass protests against President Bingu wa Mutharika's repressive rule may have fizzled out, but the economic situation continues to deteriorate as drought threatens crops, medicines and fuel run out for want of foreign currency, and Western donors, angry over the absence of any meaningful reform, refuse to pay their normal hundreds of millions of dollars in budgetary aid. For the moment, Mr Mutharika remains defiant, but the pressures are building up.

Little Swaziland, Africa's last absolute monarchy, is also in deep trouble. The government has run out of cash, and no one seems willing to lend it any without radical economic and democratic reforms, which King Mswati III refuses even to contemplate. In August South Africa, in which the pint-sized kingdom is embedded, offered it a 2.4 billion rand loan, but with strict conditions attached, which the king appears to have rejected. The government may run out of money to pay its civil servants, leading to the spread of last year's mass protests.

Botswana, for long the region's golden boy on account of its sound governance, political stability and healthy economy, also saw some unwonted unrest last year. Public-sector workers staged their first-ever nationwide strike in protest over the government's pay-restraint policies. But the government refused to budge and the two-month dispute, backed by the main opposition parties, eventually fizzled out, allowing President Ian Khama (pictured, centre) to emerge with his hand strengthened. His main challenge now is to wean the economy off its dependency on its once rich but now fast depleting diamond resources—a task he has already begun.

Deemed the poorest country on the planet 20 years ago, Mozambique continues to steam ahead, with economic growth averaging around 8% over the past 15 years—one of the fastest rates in the world. Despite continuing poor infrastructure and rampant corruption, foreign investment is pouring in, thanks to the country's sound macro-economic policies, political stability and rich mineral resources. In Mozambique's north-west, the first shipments have begun to leave what is believed to be the world's biggest unexploited coal fields, and now a massive gas field has been discovered offshore that is being hailed as one of the most significant finds of natural gas in the world in the past decade. With growth of over 7% predicted this year, the future looks bright. But for the moment the vast majority of Mozambicans continue to struggle to survive.

(Photo credit: AFP)