Boxed in

By B.U.

A FEW days ago the tobacco companies were telling themselves that Australia’s plain packaging law wasn’t all that worrying because not too many countries were planning to follow it. Ireland is mulling one and Scotland, which might become an independent country, is thinking about it. New Zealand has toyed with the idea, but decided to await more evidence on the law’s effects. Several countries have challenged Australia’s law at the World Trade Organisation, another reason to hold off.

But David Cameron, the British prime minister, spoilt the mood this week by reversing an earlier decision to scrap plans for a plain packaging law. Now the government will study the Australian experience and decide whether British public health warrants vomit-coloured packs, emblazoned with scary pictures and bigger health warnings and bereft of branding except for the brand name in standardised type (pictured).

Obviously, politics had nothing to do with the government’s change of mind. It is entirely unrelated to the controversy about Lynton Crosby, who has advised Mr Cameron’s Conservative Party and whose firm has worked for cigarette companies. As Jane Ellison, the public health minister, points out, the government is responding to “one of the most important public health issues we face in the country”.

The government’s search for evidence from the Australian experience should be fun. It is early days, but already there are duelling studies making competing claims about the effects of the law. The pro-plain-packers seem to argue that Australia’s packs are really off-putting and cause smokers to think less favourably of their habit. The anti lobby (ie, the cigarette companies) is firing back with studies showing that the use of illicit tobacco is going up, costing the government “up to” A$1 billion ($910m) of revenue, while the overall prevalence of smoking has barely dropped. Mr Cameron may decide in the end that plain packaging is good for both public health and his political health. George Osborne, who is responsible for the government’s finances, may feel differently.