The Belarusian regime blinks and releases two prisoners. What next for the EU?
By G.C. | WARSAW
THE title is ponderous but the idea is exciting. On April 16th Poland launched the first seminar in a series entitled "The European Dialogue on Modernisation with Belarusian Society". This is a new European Union initiative to try to engage business and other non-government elements to ponder what Belarus might look like if Aleksandr Lukashenko [Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarusian] left power or (even less likely) saw the light of liberalism and agreed to radical change.
The timing was fortunate. Over the weekend Andrei Sannikov [Sannikau], one of the more popular opposition candidates in December 2010's rigged presidential election, and his campaign manager, Dmitry Bondarenko [Dzmitry Bandarenka], were pardoned and released. Both had been jailed in the post-election crackdown.
So Radosław Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister, and Štefan Füle, the EU's enlargement commissioner, who opened the seminar, were able to point to a success. Most Belarusian commentators (and Mr Sannikov himself) have said that the EU's policy of sanctions led to the releases. Introduced on March 23rd, these target 243 individuals and 29 companies accused of helping the regime.
Another factor may be Russia: Mr Lukashenko's rhetoric towards Europe markedly changed after a phone conversation with Vladimir Putin on April 5th. He immediately promised to consider Mr Sannikov and Mr Bondarenko's pardon requests, and to allow OSCE observers to monitor parliamentary elections scheduled for September.
Perhaps Mr Putin told his unloved ally to mend his ways. A more conspiratorial explanation would be that the conversation went badly, and Mr Lukashenko wants some Western support against Russia. Playing the West off against Russia has stood Mr Lukashenko in good stead for most of his 17 years in power.
Belarusian analysts note that the security apparatus has grown more influential in Belarus since 2010, and has little to gain from leniency. Pressure on dissidents at home continues: an unpublished list of those who are not allowed to leave the country effectively creates hostages.
On April 17th police called Mr Sannikov for an interview at precisely the moment he had planned to hold a press conference. It is unclear whether he will return to active politics. Some opposition groups disapprove of his application for a pardon.
Another of the country's 13 political prisoners, Nikolai Statkevich [Mikalai Statkevich], also a presidential candidate, has refused to apply for a pardon, on the grounds that he is guilty of no crime. The authorities seem to be trying to frighten him into changing his mind: his chief of staff Sergei Martselev (Siarhei Martsaleu) learned yesterday that the former candidate was now sharing a cell with Andrei Vasilyeu, sentenced in 2002 to 21 years in prison for participation in death squads.
But Mr Martselev also said he believed that Mr Statkevich would be released before the parliamentary elections, even without a pardon bid. He applauded the EU's sanctions for creating this situation, and called for the West to maintain its tough line.
If this thaw continues, the question for the EU is how to reciprocate. At yesterday's seminar Mr Sikorski and Mr Füle said they would invite representatives of the regime to future events, though they were careful to insist that this would only be at a lower level of diplomatic representation, and on a case-by-case basis.
For years now EU-Belarus relations have frozen and unfrozen like the seasons, but with no harvest reaped. Political prisoners are just one card that the regime can play, releasing them for diplomatic advantage, then taking more in during another crackdown. Asked if he thought the Belarusian authorities would try to play the same trick again, Mr Sikorksi curtly answered "Yes of course they will". Plenty to talk about at the next seminar.
