By far the biggest and richest country in the Arabian peninsula, Saudi Arabia is the font of Islam and the producer that does most to set the global oil price. For Prince Nayef and his fellow princes, the kingdom has been an oasis of stability and common sense in a sea of chaos and revolutionary excess. The Arab spring is anathema to them. They hate and fear both the secular revolutionaries and the Muslim Brotherhood. Although they discreetly backed the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi in Libya because his regime seemed even more dangerous than the alternative, they viewed the fall of Mr Mubarak as a disaster.
The 89-year-old king has sought consensus at home, tiptoeing cautiously towards reform. But the pace has been too slow and the ruling princes too timid in the face of the ultra-reactionary religious authorities. The regime continues to rely on bribery and repression to keep the country's 30m people quiet. At the height of the region's democratic surge a year ago, the king spent $130 billion on a welfare package. At the same time the regime still whacks the religious fanatics who look to the late Osama bin Laden, the Saudi who sought to overthrow the monarchy for its corruption and collaboration with the infidel, especially the American one. The royal family has kept a close watch on the tenth of the Saudi population who are Shia Muslims, regarded by the ruling Sunnis as heretics in league with Iran. And it has swatted a small but growing band of reformers, both secular and Islamist, who have sought wider political participation for ordinary people, including women.
However, even if the country is quiescent, it is not stable (see article). Despite the colossal wealth of the ruling class, the number of poor is surprisingly large. A third of Saudi young people are jobless. The 140,000 or so Saudis studying abroad will want a say when they return. Irreverent social media, including Facebook and YouTube, are fizzing through the ether. A rising middle class will not lie back indefinitely on a cushion of handouts in lieu of a real voice in running the show.
