Booted upstairs

CHEER this weekend if Pranab Mukherjee (pictured above with headgear) is anointed as India’s new president. As finance minister until recently, the veteran leader of the Congress party presided over a wretched deterioration in the country’s economic prospects. Now there is a chance that those left behind may redirect a government that has badly lost its way.

Poll victories have become rare indeed for the increasingly unpopular ruling party. Yet an electoral college of nearly 5,000 national and state legislators was all but certain, on July 19th, to give Mr Mukherjee a five-year presidency that is largely ceremonial. That was thanks, in part, to mercenary motives: leaders of two crucial, populous, swing states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, fell behind Mr Mukherjee as the central government promised aid worth some $12 billion.

Congress has been beset by scandal, is led by oldies and has grown generally clumsy of late. But for this election at least, it showed a flash of its once-deft self. Days before the poll the only other candidate, Purno Sangma, in effect conceded he needed “miracles” to win. Promoted by the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, he stood no chance once Mr Mukherjee got backing even from a Hindu nationalist party, Shiv Sena, and from Congress’s most troublesome ally, West Bengal’s chief minister, Mamata Banerjee.

The result matters in at least two ways. The outgoing president, Pratibha Patil, was a bland nonentity. By contrast, twinkly-eyed and power-hungry Mr Mukherjee, who has spent four decades at the summit of Indian politics, has influence that extends, tentacle-like, across Delhi and beyond. On rare occasions, the presidency has moments of great power. A hung parliament is almost certain after the next general election in 2014, when the president may pick which party tries first to form a coalition. Those tentacles could prove handy for a diminished Congress.

More important, with Mr Mukherjee booted upstairs Congress could try getting government to function again. The 76-year-old’s three-year spell as finance minister was ignominious. (“He has an economic mind from the 1970s,” grumbles an observer.) He oversaw GDP growth that fell to 5.3% in the first three months of this year, from over 8% just over a year before; high inflation; a collapsing rupee; surging deficits and a fiscal mess. Plans for vague and retrospective taxes dismayed investors, foreign and local. Worse, he bungled urgent reforms, notably over opening foreign investment in the retailing industry, and failing to push through a goods and services tax and to cut costly subsidies.

It was not all his fault, however. A cabinet minister, Salman Kurshid, bravely admitted the obvious this month, calling the government directionless. He did not need to spell out that Manmohan Singh, the elderly prime minister, cannot impose his will, nor that populists like West Bengal’s Ms Banerjee block reform. Meanwhile there is administrative paralysis in the face of corruption scandals.

With Mr Mukherjee’s ascent, a reshuffle will follow. Mr Singh, as a stand-in finance minister, has made welcome noises about getting the economy’s “animal spirit” moving again. He could next bring back Palaniappan Chidambaram, the 66-year-old home minister, who presided over finance for most of Congress’s first term (2004-09), when the economy roared. Or he could call on Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the brainy head of planning.

Either would be an improvement. Less likely, but more daring, would be to skip a generation and let younger leaders take bigger jobs—elevating Jairam Ramesh who languishes at rural affairs, Anand Sharma at trade, or possibly a real youngster, such as Sachin Pilot, a technology minister. A dream political change would signal that new leaders, less tainted by graft, would try to restore public finances, push through reform and promote growth.

India’s mood is waiting to be lifted. Local firms wallow in cash, hungry for a chance to invest, but they need predictability about policy and decision-making. The 100 biggest by market share are hesitating, having doubled their cash holdings since 2009 to some 104 billion rupees (around $1.8 billion). Foreign firms, even in infrastructure and consumer goods, also hold back, unsure of the politics.

Yet expecting decisive change from Congress’s behemoth is probably a fantasy. The instincts of Sonia Gandhi, the party’s president, are to seek votes from villagers (who still make up two-thirds of the population), with promises of welfare, make-work schemes and food rations. It would take skilful manoeuvring to do that and also promote bold, liberalising reforms, such as cutting fuel subsidies.

More troubling, sycophancy to the Gandhi dynasty dictates that no young figure can outshine the bashful 42-year-old heir apparent, Rahul Gandhi, who had largely been absent from high-profile politics since a thumping defeat in important state polls in Uttar Pradesh in March.

Some in Congress say he will be back to take a big political role. On July 19th, after casting his vote in the presidential election, he confirmed this, saying he is ready to play a “more active role in party and government.” That is striking, given an earlier refusal to join Mr Singh’s administration. It will immediately raise expectations that he is preparing to lead Congress for the vote in 2014. His elevation alone may not be enough to end what Pratap Bhanu Mehta, of the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi, calls the “crisis of credibility” for Congress, but it marks a long-awaited arrival in national politics.