Eastern approaches | Georgian politics

Blood feud

Is Georgian democracy in trouble?

By G.E. Tbilisi

IS Georgian democracy in trouble? The government claims that the “Russian-influenced opposition” could subvert Georgia’s parliamentary elections in October this year. In contrast, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of Georgian Dream, an opposition party, complains of systematic discrimination at the hands of an increasingly authoritarian regime. New polling results show that only 38% of Georgians think that Georgia is now a democracy, compared with 49% in February.

Georgians may have too pessimistic a view of their own country. As a recent pre-electoral assessment from the National Democratic Institute (NDI) points out, Georgia has implemented several key democratic reforms in recent years. New institutions ensure the accuracy of the voters’ list or regulate party financing. Amendments to the electoral code in late 2011 and early 2012 introduced a raft of positive changes although the failure to redraw electoral districts (which range from 6,000 to 158,000 voters) means some votes are worth less than others. Recent “must carry” provisions will improve opposition parties’ access to the media by obliging cable providers to transmit all television channels with news programmes during the sixty-day campaign period. In all, the “2012 electoral process is more formalised and regulated compared to past elections”, the NDI concludes.

Even so, the dark side of Georgian politics, which Thomas de Waal has likened to “a blood feud” , has been all too evident since Mr Ivanishvili entered politics in October last year. Georgia’s richest man remains without Georgian citizenship, an absurd situation of which most of his compatriots disapprove; the sooner that is resolved, the better. The Chamber of Control stands accused of levying disproportionate fines on the Georgian Dream movement, which Mr Ivanishvili has refused to pay. (It has responded by seizing some of his assets). And before Parliament adopted the must carry provisions, Channel 9, a new television station co-owned by Mr Ivanishvili’s wife, and Global TV, the only broadcaster that carried it, suffered from almost continuous harassment .

Both sides continue to vilify each other, complaining of harassment, improper campaign spending, attempted bribery of state officials and abuse of administrative resources. A debate in the European Parliament on 4th July about Georgian politics reached similar extremes. As punch-ups during Georgian Dream campaign meetings in the central Georgian villages of Mereti on 26th June and Kareleti on 12th July suggest, it could get nastier still.

Yet Mr Ivanishvili’s political awakening has also awoken Georgian voters. Huge, peaceful rallies have taken place across the country, far beyond anything seen in recent years. Many more Georgians (75%) now plan to vote in October’s elections than intended to so in September last year (51%), polls show. And the political debate is increasingly focused on issues that matter to ordinary Georgians, not just personalities.

Georgian Dream unveiled some of their plans in May: cutting utility costs, investing in agriculture, free universal health-insurance and increased pensions. Vano Merabishvili, the former interior minister who became prime minister in late June, announced the government’s four-year post-election programme shortly after taking office. He too wants to boost pensions, provide universal health-insurance, and invest in agriculture. Mr Merabishvili has also set up a new ministry to tackle unemployment (roughly 34% of Georgians say they are unemployed, compared with an official rate unemployment rate of 16%), and promises to provide each family with vouchers worth $600.

Does Mr Merabishvili’s appointment indicate that Mikheil Saakashvili, the president, is unlikely to become prime minister once his term in office expires in early 2013? As one of the few big beasts of Georgian politics, Mr Merabishvili would certainly be hard to shove aside. At any rate, slightly more Georgians would oppose such a job-swap à la Putin than would approve of it.

Reassuringly, 55% of Georgians surveyed think the elections will be well conducted, and only 21% fear falsification. But there is little room for complacency. Mr Ivanishvili has said that if he has any evidence of vote-rigging by the authorities, he will call for street protests. For most foreign observers, and many Georgians, that would be a step backwards. Yet 27% of those polled say he would be justified in doing so. Come October, that sentiment could matter.

While most Georgians are focused on who will win, Georgia’s allies say the credibility of the electoral process is key. As the NDI states, “further development of democratic institutions and practices offer the best chance for western integration and for long-term prosperity and stability.” With the political temperature likely to rise further in coming months, Georgia’s politicians would do well to bear that in mind. Will they?

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