Babbage | Global mobile usage

SIM Earth

At last, a rough estimate of the number of unique mobile phone users in the world—and of how many SIM cards each of them wields

By A.A.K. AND J.P.

IT IS relatively easy to track the number of mobile subscriptions around the world. Telecoms companies are only too happy to share those numbers, which have been growing inexorably in the past decade. According to the latest reckoning by the GSMA, a trade association, there are currently 5.9 billion such active mobile "connections", industry lingo for SIM cards (more if you count those used in payment terminals and other machine-to-machine links).

Pinning down the number of actual mobile subscribers has been far trickier. In rich countries many consumers own more than one device (a phone and a tablet, say). In poorer places, meanwhile, it is common for people to juggle a few SIM cards in a single device (often with different providers, to minimise inter-operator charges when contacting people on different networks).

In its new report, published on October 18th, the GSMA takes a crack at it. Its research, spanning three years and 39 countries, suggests that 3.2 billion people, or 46% of the world's total population of 7 billion, have at least one active mobile (cellular) device. That translates to an average of 1.85 SIM cards per user.

Predictably, the report found, parts of the developed world are nearing saturation. In Japan, Britain and the Nordic countries nine out of ten citizens are mobile subscribers. Unlike the proportion of connections, this figure cannot exceed 100%. Nor is this upper bound ever likely to be hit since, as the study's authors argue, some sections of society, like infants and prisoners, will for ever remain unconnected. This limits the scope for future growth, especially in Europe, where users already wield on average 1.8 SIM cards, more than the overall developed-world figure of 1.5.

The data for developing countries tell a different story. The ratio of SIM cards to users of mobile devices stands at 2.2. But only 39% of the people living there subscribe to a mobile service. Though the figure is much higher in middle-income countries like Russia or Brazil, there is ample room for growth.

India is a case in point. The country's 900m mobile connections (second only to China's) are in the hands of just 300m of its 1.2 billion people, the lowest proportion among big emerging economies. The GSMA estimates that India's mobile-subscriber base will grow by more than 50% in five years. As city-dwellers' mobile needs are satisfied, carriers will no doubt start covetously eyeing the relatively untapped rural market, where they have often feared to tread because of the costs of servicing customers in remote locations across a vast country. China, too, has a way to go. At present, just 43% of Chinese are mobile subscribers. The number is expected to reach 52% in 2017, mirroring the world as a whole.

Not all of the world's unconnected masses are an immediate target for providers. The GSMA puts the global "addressable" population at just 4.7 billion (1.5 billion more than the current 3.2 billion unique subscribers). Of the remaining 2.3 billion, 1.5 billion live in pockets with poor or no network coverage, though this should fall to 1.1 billion by 2017. The other 800m include some elderly, disabled and cash-strapped unemployed, as well as the very young or incarcerated. The world's addressable population ought to swell by 300m over the next five years. But so will its legions of unconnected, expected to reach 2.4 billion in 2017.

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