America could do better than Barack Obama; sadly, Mitt Romney does not fit the bill

Which one?

Our American endorsement - Which one? | Leaders | The Economist

Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential term expires on May 20th

Funding journalism with cash from big tech has become a fiasco

Canada’s law to help news outlets is harming them instead

How to deal with Chinese actions that lie between war and peace

Xi Jinping is subtler than Vladimir Putin—yet equally disruptive

Big tech’s capex splurge may be irrationally exuberant

The many vulnerabilities, and enduring strengths, of America’s republic

Is America dictator-proof?

Leaders

Olympian depths

Out of the basket

No place like home

gb_safe_from_high

gs_politics

neg_goldmansachs_brandsafety

neg_omd_exclusion

america_campaigns_elections

ibm_blacklist

chanel_neg

gs_politics_issues_policy

gs_politics_misc

politics_general

gs_politics_american

neg_fidelity_gmo

neg_3166_vca_brand-safety

america_white_house

gt_negative

neg_jpm_2024q4

neg_exxon

neg_dit

legal_law

neg_workday_master

neg_morgan_stanley_2019_neg_keywords

microsoft_blacklist

fidelity_blacklist

cigna_healthyhybridworkplace

america_department_commerce

workdayblocklist

gs_science

vca_brand_safety

neg_ey_kwbl

america_supreme_court

ssga_tax_reform_happens

google_negative_keywords

gs_economy

gs_science_geography

neg_nested5_fidelity_gmo

universal_negative_keywords

shadow9hu7_pos_goldman_inclusion_2024

gs_economy_misc

neg_ey_brandsafety

gs_politics_elections

america_department_justice

neg_ibm_brandsafety

america_federal_reserve

gs_business

shadow9hu7_pos_israel-hamas_war

egypt_air

gs_busfin

america_department_security

neg_israel-hamas_war

neg_facebook

neg_cartier

neg_3166_vca_brand-safety1

america_peace_movement

future_of_work_test

america_nanny_state

neg_dit4

custom_vanguard

samsung_negative_

business_csuite

neg_3166_vca_brand-safety3

gs_busfin_economy

checks_and_balance_newsletter

ssga_currency_wars

neg_3166_vca_brand-safety2

fow_barclays

gs_health

gs_finance

neg_dit9

america_department_education

gb_sensitive_high_med

gb_sensitive_high_med_low

gv_military

FOUR years ago, The Economist endorsed Barack Obama for the White House with enthusiasm. So did millions of voters. Next week Americans will trudge to the polls far less hopefully. So (in spirit at least) will this London-based newspaper. Having endured a miserably negative campaign, the world’s most powerful country now has a much more difficult decision to make than it faced four years ago.

FOUR years ago, The Economist endorsed Barack Obama for the White House with enthusiasm. So did millions of voters. Next week Americans will trudge to the polls far less hopefully. So (in spirit at least) will this London-based newspaper. Having endured a miserably negative campaign, the world’s most powerful country now has a much more difficult decision to make than it faced four years ago.

That is in large part because of the woeful nature of Mr Obama’s campaign. A man who once personified hope and centrism set a new low by unleashing attacks on Mitt Romney even before the first Republican primary. Yet elections are about choosing somebody to run a country. And this choice turns on two questions: how good a president has Mr Obama been, especially on the main issues of the economy and foreign policy? And can America really trust the ever-changing Mitt Romney to do a better job? On that basis, the Democrat narrowly deserves to be re-elected.

Mr Obama’s first term has been patchy. On the economy, the most powerful argument in his favour is simply that he stopped it all being a lot worse. America was in a downward economic spiral when he took over, with its banks and carmakers in deep trouble and unemployment rising at the rate of 800,000 a month. His responses—an aggressive stimulus, bailing out General Motors and Chrysler, putting the banks through a sensible stress test and forcing them to raise capital (so that they are now in much better shape than their European peers)—helped avert a Depression. That is a hard message to sell on the doorstep when growth is sluggish and jobs scarce; but it will win Mr Obama some plaudits from history, and it does from us too.

Two other things count, on balance, in his favour. One is foreign policy, where he was also left with a daunting inheritance. Mr Obama has refocused George Bush’s “war on terror” more squarely on terrorists, killing Osama bin Laden, stepping up drone strikes (perhaps too liberally, see article) and retreating from Iraq and Afghanistan (in both cases too quickly for our taste). After a shaky start with China, American diplomacy has made a necessary “pivot” towards Asia. By contrast, with both the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and his “reset” with Russia, he overreached and underdelivered. Iran has continued its worrying crawl towards nuclear weapons.

Two other things count, on balance, in his favour. One is foreign policy, where he was also left with a daunting inheritance. Mr Obama has refocused George Bush’s “war on terror” more squarely on terrorists, killing Osama bin Laden, stepping up drone strikes (perhaps too liberally, see <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2012/11/03/death-from-afar">article</a>) and retreating from Iraq and Afghanistan (in both cases too quickly for our taste). After a shaky start with China, American diplomacy has made a necessary “pivot” towards Asia. By contrast, with both the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and his “reset” with Russia, he overreached and underdelivered. Iran has continued its worrying crawl towards nuclear weapons.

All these problems could have been anticipated. The Arab spring could not. Here Mr Obama can point to the ousting of tyrants in Egypt and Libya, but he has followed events rather than shaping them, nowhere more so than with the current carnage in Syria. Compared with, say, George Bush senior, who handled the end of the cold war, this aloof, disengaged man is no master diplomat; set beside the younger Bush, however, Mr Obama has been a safe pair of hands.

The other qualified achievement is health reform. Even to a newspaper with no love for big government, the fact that over 40m people had no health coverage in a country as rich as America was a scandal. “Obamacare” will correct that, but Mr Obama did very little to deal with the system’s other flaw—its huge and unaffordable costs. He surrendered too much control to left-wing Democrats in Congress. As with the gargantuan Dodd-Frank reform of Wall Street, Obamacare has generated a tangle of red tape—and left business to deal with it all.

It is here that our doubts about Mr Obama set in. No administration in many decades has had such a poor appreciation of commerce. Previous Democrats, notably Bill Clinton, raised taxes, but still understood capitalism. Bashing business seems second nature to many of the people around Mr Obama. If he has appointed some decent people to his cabinet—Hillary Clinton at the State Department, Arne Duncan at education and Tim Geithner at the Treasury—the White House itself has too often seemed insular and left-leaning. The obstructive Republicans in Congress have certainly been a convenient excuse for many of the president’s failures, but he must also shoulder some blame. Mr Obama spends regrettably little time buttering up people who disagree with him; of the 104 rounds of golf the president has played in office, only one was with a Republican congressman.

Above all, Mr Obama has shown no readiness to tackle the main domestic issue confronting the next president: America cannot continue to tax like a small government but spend like a big one. Mr Obama came into office promising to end “our chronic avoidance of tough decisions” on reforming its finances—and then retreated fast, as he did on climate change and on immigration. Disgracefully, he ignored the suggestions of the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson deficit commission that he himself set up. More tellingly, he has failed to lay out a credible plan for what he will do in the next four years. Virtually his entire campaign has been spent attacking Mr Romney, usually for his wealth and success in business.

Mr Obama’s shortcomings have left ample room for a pragmatic Republican, especially one who could balance the books and overhaul government. Such a candidate briefly flickered across television screens in the first presidential debate. This newspaper would vote for that Mitt Romney, just as it would for the Romney who ran Democratic Massachusetts in a bipartisan way (even pioneering the blueprint for Obamacare). The problem is that there are a lot of Romneys and they have committed themselves to a lot of dangerous things.

Take foreign policy. In the debates Mr Romney stuck closely to the president on almost every issue. But elsewhere he has repeatedly taken a more bellicose line. In some cases, such as Syria and Russia (see article), this newspaper would welcome a more robust position. But Mr Romney seems too ready to bomb Iran, too uncritically supportive of Israel and cruelly wrong in his belief in “the Palestinians not wanting to see peace”. The bellicosity could start on the first day of his presidency, when he has vowed to list China as a currency manipulator—a pointless provocation to its new leadership that could easily degenerate into a trade war.

Take foreign policy. In the debates Mr Romney stuck closely to the president on almost every issue. But elsewhere he has repeatedly taken a more bellicose line. In some cases, such as Syria and Russia (see <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2012/11/03/vladimir-the-victor">article</a>), this newspaper would welcome a more robust position. But Mr Romney seems too ready to bomb Iran, too uncritically supportive of Israel and cruelly wrong in his belief in “the Palestinians not wanting to see peace”. The bellicosity could start on the first day of his presidency, when he has vowed to list China as a currency manipulator—a pointless provocation to its new leadership that could easily degenerate into a trade war.

Or take reducing the deficit and reforming American government. Here there is more to like about Mr Romney. He generally believes in the smaller state we would rather see; he would slash red tape and his running-mate, Paul Ryan, has dared to broach much-needed entitlement reform.

Yet far from being the voice of fiscal prudence, Mr Romney wants to start with huge tax cuts (which will disproportionately favour the wealthy), while dramatically increasing defence spending. Together those measures would add $7 trillion to the ten-year deficit. He would balance the books through eliminating loopholes (a good idea, but he will not specify which ones) and through savage cuts to programmes that help America’s poor (a bad idea, which will increase inequality still further). At least Mr Obama, although he distanced himself from Bowles-Simpson, has made it clear that any long-term solution has to involve both entitlement reform and tax rises. Mr Romney is still in the cloud-cuckoo-land of thinking you can do it entirely through spending cuts: the Republican even rejected a ratio of ten parts spending cuts to one part tax rises. Backing business is important, but getting the macroeconomics right matters far more.

Mr Romney’s more sensible supporters explain his fiscal policies away as necessary rubbish, concocted to persuade the fanatics who vote in the Republican primaries: the great flipflopper, they maintain, does not mean a word of it. Of course, he knows in current circumstances no sane person would really push defence spending, projected to fall below 3% of GDP, to 4%; of course President Romney would strike a deal that raises overall tax revenues, even if he cuts tax rates.

However, even if you accept that Romneynomics may be more numerate in practice than it is in theory, it is far harder to imagine that he will reverse course entirely. When politicians get elected they tend to do quite a lot of the things they promised during their campaigns. François Hollande, France’s famously pliable new president, was supposed to be too pragmatic to introduce a 75% top tax rate, yet he is steaming ahead with his plan. We weren’t fooled by the French left; we see no reason why the American right will be more flexible. Mr Romney, like Mr Hollande, will have his party at his back—and a long record of pandering to them.

Indeed, the extremism of his party is Mr Romney’s greatest handicap. The Democrats have their implacable fringe too: look at the teachers’ unions. But the Republicans have become a party of Torquemadas, forcing representatives to sign pledges never to raise taxes, to dump the chairman of the Federal Reserve and to embrace an ever more Southern-fried approach to social policy. Under President Romney, new conservative Supreme Court justices would try to overturn Roe v Wade, returning abortion policy to the states. The rights of immigrants (who have hardly had a good deal under Mr Obama) and gays (who have) would also come under threat. This newspaper yearns for the more tolerant conservatism of Ronald Reagan, where “small government” meant keeping the state out of people’s bedrooms as well as out of their businesses. Mr Romney shows no sign of wanting to revive it.

Indeed, the extremism of his party is Mr Romney’s greatest handicap. The Democrats have their implacable fringe too: look at the teachers’ unions. But the Republicans have become a party of Torquemadas, forcing representatives to sign pledges never to raise taxes, to dump the chairman of the Federal Reserve and to embrace an ever more Southern-fried approach to social policy. Under President Romney, new conservative Supreme Court justices would try to overturn Roe v Wade, returning abortion policy to the states. The rights of immigrants (who have hardly had a good deal under Mr Obama) and gays (who have) would also come under threat. This newspaper yearns for the more tolerant conservatism of Ronald Reagan, where “small government” meant keeping the state out of people’s bedrooms as well as out of their businesses. Mr Romney shows no sign of wanting to revive it.

We very much hope that whichever of these men wins office will prove our pessimism wrong. Once in the White House, maybe the Romney of the mind will become reality, cracking bipartisan deals to reshape American government, with his vice-president keeping the headbangers in the Republican Party in line. A re-elected President Obama might learn from his mistakes, clean up the White House, listen to the odd businessman and secure a legacy happier than the one he would leave after a single term. Both men have it in them to be their better selves; but the sad fact is that neither candidate has campaigned as if that is his plan.

As a result, this election offers American voters an unedifying choice. Many of The Economist’s readers, especially those who run businesses in America, may well conclude that nothing could be worse than another four years of Mr Obama. We beg to differ. For all his businesslike intentions, Mr Romney has an economic plan that works only if you don’t believe most of what he says. That is not a convincing pitch for a chief executive. And for all his shortcomings, Mr Obama has dragged America’s economy back from the brink of disaster, and has made a decent fist of foreign policy. So this newspaper would stick with the devil it knows, and re-elect him.

As a result, this election offers American voters an unedifying choice. Many of The Economist’s readers, especially those who run businesses in America, may well conclude that nothing could be worse than another four years of Mr Obama. We beg to differ. For all his businesslike intentions, Mr Romney has an economic plan that works only if you don’t believe most of what he says. That is not a convincing pitch for a chief executive. And for all his shortcomings, Mr Obama has dragged America’s economy back from the brink of disaster, and has made a decent fist of foreign policy. So this newspaper would stick with the devil it knows, and re-elect him.

Read more:Full coverage of the 2012 presidential election

Read more:<a href="http://www.economist.com/world/us-elections-2012">Full coverage of the 2012 presidential election</a>

Our American endorsement

Get to grips with a region where capital, climate and geopolitics collide

Go deeper with our Middle East newsletter. Every week our correspondents delve into the political, social and economic stories of a region that is rarely out of the news.

Sign up to our Middle East newsletter

Middle East Dispatch

Follow the action in Latin America, from the depths of the Brazilian Amazon to the Mexican-American border

Every week our correspondents share insights on politics, economics and business from an increasingly complex region

Stay informed with our weekly Latin America newsletter

El Boletín

A sharp round-up of the most important US political news

Sign up for updates from our correspondents and data journalists, poll tracker and election-forecast model as the 2024 race unfolds

The US in brief

Inside Europe, from the front lines in Ukraine to the corridors of power in Brussels

Stay informed with our weekly Europe newsletter

Café Europa

Understand a vast and complicated country that will increasingly shape the future

Stay informed with our weekly India newsletter

Essential India

The best of The Economist’s defence coverage, in one place

The War Room

A weekly conversation about culture. Because culture is a serious business

Exploring trends and connections across entertainment, the arts and politics

Broaden your perspective with our weekly culture newsletter

Plot Twist

Analysing the challenges facing Britain and what needs to be done to overcome them

Stay informed with our weekly Britain newsletter

Blighty

Understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world

Stay informed with our weekly China newsletter

Drum Tower

Your essential guide to global business and technology

From supply chains to semiconductors, The Bottom Line newsletter has you covered

Need to track the megatrends shaping business and technology?

The Bottom Line

Catch up quickly on the global stories that matter

Sign up to enjoy a mind-expanding mix of stories, delivered six days a week

Catch up quickly on the stories that matter

The World in Brief

A behind-the-scenes look at how we chose and designed this week’s cover

How we chose this week’s cover image

Cover Story

Exclusive insight from our correspondents in America

Exclusive insight and reading recommendations from our correspondents in America

Checks and Balance

A weekly fix of our mind-expanding science coverage

Curious about the world? Enjoy a weekly fix of our mind-expanding science coverage

Simply Science

Climate-change analysis that you won’t read elsewhere in The Economist

The Climate Issue

Expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics and markets

Money Talks

Taking you behind the scenes of our data journalism

Off the Charts

Long reads and life from 1843 magazine

The Extraordinary Story

The very best of our journalism, handpicked for you each weekday

A daily newsletter with the best of our journalism

Handpicked stories, in your inbox

The Economist today

Highlights from the latest weekly issue, introduced by our editor

Which one?

America could do better than Barack Obama; sadly, Mitt Romney does not fit the bill

Leaders November 3rd 2012

From the November 3rd 2012 edition

More from Leaders

Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential term expires on May 20th

Canada’s law to help news outlets is harming them instead

Xi Jinping is subtler than Vladimir Putin—yet equally disruptive