The dangers of anecdotal evidence

By Buttonwood

LIKE many Britons, your blogger spent two weeks in late August in Spain (just south of Barcelona). My knowledge of Spanish is about as rudimentary as Todd Akin's knowledge of human biology. But in theory, this was an interesting opportunity to see how the Spanish economy was coping with the pressure of austerity and bank funding worries. All looked fine; the beaches were packed, as were the bars and restaurants. Two days after my return, however, the regional government (Catalonia) applied to Madrid for €5 billion in aid.

This discrepancy was hardly surprising. I was staying at the peak of a season in a resort town populated mainly by fellow Britons and the French; the anecdotal evidence I was absorbing was little guide to the health of Spain itself. This is a common problem. Wander the streets near The Economist and London is booming; but London is not all of Britain. It attracts a lot of the tourists, and the Russian billionaires, and the hedge fund elite. Life in, say, Bradford may look a lot different.