How to win the World Cup

By A.Y., P.K., D.D.M., J.M.F. and K.N.C.

FOOTBALL fans tend to view their teams through rose-tinted glasses, not cold, hard stats. Our “probability circle” above shows the chances that a team will win the tournament, at each stage. Brazil is the favourite by a wide margin. But there are a few surprises. Spain and Germany are about evenly tied but each is still three times less likely to win than Brazil. Portugal’s chances are just ahead of Argentina’s. Switzerland’s odds are relatively high at 5%; among London bookies they are less than 1%.

The probabilities are based on the outcome of every official FIFA game since 1993, along with the relative ranking of teams when they've played one another, and the location of games (eg, Brazil has a notable advantage by playing at home). Then, the model simulates every possible 2014 World Cup game combination to determine the probability for each team to advance. A fuller description of the methodology is here. Play with the probability circle to find your own surprises.