Rise of the ayes

FOR once the hyperbolic phrase holds true: the stakes could not be much higher. On September 10th David Cameron, the Conservative prime minister, Ed Miliband, leader of the Labour Party, and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats rushed to Scotland in a desperate and possibly doomed effort to save the United Kingdom. If Scots vote for independence on September 18th, as opinion polls suggest they may, it will be the end of the union. If they vote against it, Mr Cameron and his political rivals promised, Scotland will get significant new powers, with talks on a fresh constitutional deal to start the day after the vote. Either way—but to very different degrees—Britain is about to change.

Even before this week’s polls suggested the gap between the separatist Yes and unionist No campaigns had closed, from around 20 points in favour of the union to next to nothing, there had been signs of a nationalist surge. A gambit from Alex Salmond, Scotland’s nationalist first minister, to present continued rule from Westminster as a risk to Scotland’s public services has worked. Town-hall and college debates had shown a sudden lurch to the “Yes” side, including among the youngest voters—unusually, 16- and 17-year-olds are being polled—who were considered staunchly unionist. Always more motivated than their unionist rivals, Yes campaigners are now turning out for a final push, from the Outer Hebrides to Glasgow’s slums, in a euphoric state. They think they have the momentum. They may be right.