The man who would be president

DUMPED in Britain, rejected in Germany, booted out in Sweden and the Netherlands, the left is in decline across Europe. Among the big economies, only Spain is run by Socialists, and even there they are in trouble. The one country where the left ought to stand a good chance of breaking this trend is France, which holds a presidential election in 2012. With Nicolas Sarkozy deeply unpopular and the right having occupied the presidency since 1995, it is the Socialists' election to lose. But the party has an uncanny talent for blowing its chances by picking the wrong candidate. Is it about to do so again?

Candidates for the Socialist primary have until this June to declare themselves, ahead of a vote in the autumn. To outsiders, the choice looks simple. Dominique Strauss-Kahn (pictured campaigning in 2007), the head of the Washington-based IMF, boasts both heavyweight credentials and domestic appeal. A former finance minister of France, an ex-economics professor and one-time mayor of Sarcelles (a banlieue of Paris), he has grown in stature in his current job, at home and abroad. The French have become accustomed to seeing him hobnobbing with world leaders and bailing out debt-laden countries. In December he topped a popularity poll of French politicians.

Moreover, Mr Strauss-Kahn's calm, professorial manner has particular pull at a time when many French voters have tired of the hyperactive Mr Sarkozy. Unlike other Socialist hopefuls, such as Martine Aubry, the party's boss and the architect, a decade ago, of France's 35-hour working week, Mr Strauss-Kahn could also appeal beyond the party's natural base to France's centre and centre-right. One poll, admittedly an outlier, suggested that Mr Strauss-Kahn would beat Mr Sarkozy in a second-round run-off by a crushing 62% to 38%.

The big question for 2011, therefore, is whether Mr Strauss-Kahn will run. The decision is not risk-free. He would have to give up a plum job, and fat pay cheque, in Washington before his term expires, in September 2012, in order to fight a primary. And the field looks crowded. Ségolène Royal, who beat Mr Strauss-Kahn in the 2006 primary but was defeated by Mr Sarkozy in the following year's presidential election, has announced that she will stand. So have Manuel Valls and Arnaud Montebourg, two younger aspirants. François Hollande, the party's ex-leader and Ms Royal's ex-partner, may also join the race. This time the primary vote is particularly uncertain as it is open to anybody who registers as a party supporter, not just to members. One Socialist who has seen Mr Strauss-Kahn recently puts at 50:50 the likelihood that he will return. Another friend is more upbeat: “If he says no now, with such good poll numbers, he will regret it for the rest of his life.”

There is little hint that the Socialists are ready to put collective victory before personal ambition. Voters seem happy to elect them to run town halls and regions, but are put off by the tiresome antics of the theatrical Parisian elite. (The last time they elected a Socialist president was 23 years ago, in the shape of François Mitterrand.) The candidates miss no chance to undercut each other. In November Ms Aubry said, to general surprise, that she, Mr Strauss-Kahn and Ms Royal had struck a three-way deal not to run against each other. Days later, Ms Royal launched her candidacy.

Given that his current job forbids political comment, Mr Strauss-Kahn has kept silent about his intentions. This has lent him an almost mystical aura in France, which would doubtless evaporate the moment he stepped off the plane. His friends have long argued that he would not come back to fight a beauty contest, but only if he were called upon, de Gaulle-like, to save France. This may be fanciful. But the calculation he faces has shifted in recent months. Polls now consistently suggest that he would perform much better than any of his rivals in a run-off vote against Mr Sarkozy (see chart). His surge is particularly striking among Socialist voters, who many expect would distrust a man from the IMF. A year ago 25% of them told Ifop, a polling organisation, that Mr Strauss-Kahn was their preferred candidate, next to 27% for Ms Aubry. By November they favoured him by 41% to 17%.

Moreover, should Mr Strauss-Kahn decide to stand in the primary race, some of his rivals may drop out. Ms Aubry, who has shown no burning desire to run, would certainly not do so against him. (The most recent Socialist boss to become the party's presidential candidate was Mitterrand, in 1981.) Even Ms Royal, who may be manoeuvring as much for a top job under a potential Strauss-Kahn presidency, might not run were he to stand. After declaring her candidacy, she added: “When the time comes, I will see with Dominique which is the best winning arrangement.”

Should he go for it, Mr Strauss-Kahn's biggest test may be to readapt to the Socialists' left-wing centre of gravity, which puts them at odds with most European social-democratic parties. Only this week the party was up in arms when Mr Valls, one of the younger crowd, suggested abolishing the 35-hour week. In December a proto-manifesto entitled “Real Equality” called for crèches, jobs, housing and holidays for all, with passing reference to how to finance them (more taxes on higher earners and an end to tax breaks for the rich).

The pamphlet's author (and Socialist spokesman), Benoît Hamon, brushed off doubts about its credibility: “Whom do we want it to be credible to? Moody's rating agency, or Renault workers?” If Mr Strauss-Kahn returns, the champion of IMF austerity will need gymnastic suppleness to square his centrist appeal with the left-wingery of much of his party.