Thaksin's last stand

IN ONE form or another, Thaksin Shinawatra has been in the thick of Thai politics for a decade. Since September 2006, when the two-term prime minister was ousted in a coup, he has had to rely on proxies to fight his corner. And so, on July 3rd, Mr Thaksin's youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, will be his stand-in when Thais vote in the first national election since December 2007.

The timetable has quickened the pulse at Mr Thaksin's luxury villa in Dubai. Behind heavy curtains, he receives important guests and hosts syrupy videoconferences with rank-and-file supporters back home, the so-called red shirts. Their demonstrations paralysed central Bangkok last year. The army eventually put down the protests, with 92 killed. It sharpened the divisions between those who love and loathe Mr Thaksin.

The red shirts' battle cry was for new elections. Now that the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has dissolved parliament, some wonder if the process might somehow be derailed. The ultranationalist, and anti-Thaksin, yellow shirts have called for an appointed royalist government to clean up politics. Asked about coup plots, military chiefs serve up boilerplate denials, just as they did in 2006.

Mr Thaksin seems unruffled by such talk. Elections will go ahead, he insists, and Pheu Thai, the party led by Ms Yingluck, should win a clear majority, assuming no electoral hanky-panky. With victory, Mr Thaksin says, Pheu Thai would invite smaller parties into a coalition government, to be the “ferns” in a “beautiful” flower arrangement.

For Thailand's royalist generals, a victory for Mr Thaksin is an unpleasant prospect. Many red-shirt leaders want to punish those who ordered and carried out last year's crackdown. Pheu Thai aims to amend the current constitution, drafted under military rule. It pledges to repatriate Mr Thaksin as part of a political-amnesty scheme. Mr Thaksin has told supporters he will return in November. “And when I say something, I mean it.”

For now, though, he is a fugitive from Thai justice. A two-year jail term awaits him in Thailand, passed in absentia for corruption. Mr Thaksin complains that he has been “bullied politically”, and subjected to “Mickey Mouse” court cases. Yet he claims he is ready to forgive, if not forget.

His opponents will need more convincing. After all, Mr Thaksin is widely seen as having fomented violent demonstrations and arson attacks in Bangkok (he insists that protesters were peaceful until provoked). He has many powerful enemies, including in royal circles. Any attempt at a compromise between Thailand's warring factions, which go beyond a simple red-yellow divide, is that much harder with Mr Thaksin on centre court.

Some Thaksinites recognise this dilemma. A Pheu Thai-led government would need to build consensus around an amnesty proposal and pass the legislation “at the right time,” says Phongthep Thepkanjana, once a justice minister under Mr Thaksin. He draws a parallel with pardons granted to Communist rebels in the 1980s, including some with murder raps. Military and civilian officials behind last year's crackdown could be covered so as to win cross-party support.

Yet the devil will be in the details. An amnesty for protesters jailed for minor offences is one thing. But if Mr Thaksin's allies try to commute his conviction by executive decree or similar manoeuvre, resistance would come from the courts and, inevitably, from the streets.

On the stump, Mr Abhisit chides Pheu Thai for focusing solely on the past and working to exonerate Mr Thaksin. No doubt some voters are turned off by Pheu Thai's relentless emphasis on Mr Thaksin and on the starring role of his telegenic sister, whom he describes as his “clone”. Still, plenty of others believe Thailand was better off when he was in charge.

Before he went into politics, Mr Thaksin made a fortune in telecommunications. He still smarts over the Supreme Court's confiscation last year of 46 billion baht ($1.5 billion) from the sale of his family-owned Shin Corp in 2006 to Singapore's Temasek Holdings. The military junta froze the proceeds after seizing power that year.

Yet the same court ruled that the remaining 30 billion baht from the sale belonged to Mr Thaksin. Indeed, this money has been transferred to his family's accounts in Thailand. He is busy investing in African minerals and says that he plans to list these assets. He has a private jet and a cadre of devoted staff. Life is not so bad in exile. But it cannot compare to the pull of a political comeback at home.