Putin is concentrating

By G.F.

VLADIMIR PUTIN is nothing if not consistent. The Russian prime minister's latest response to the popular protests that shook his dozen-year rule last month is to contend that only he can steer his country through the shoals of chaos and stagnation. His assertion came in a newspaper article laying out his reasons for seeking another presidential term in March.

The spectre of anarchy is an old trope among Russian rulers seeking to justify their autocracies. No coincidence, then, that Mr Putin, who likes to compare himself to strong-willed 19th-century reformers, titled his manifesto "Russia is Concentrating," a quote from Prince Alexander Gorchakov, the 19th-century foreign minister who described Russia's renewal following its devastating defeat in the Crimean war.

Mr Putin criticised a “constantly recurring problem in Russian history”: what he called the urge for revolution. “Today people are talking about various ways to renew the political process”, he writes. “But what are we supposed to be negotiating about?”

Mr Putin may be attempting to court the tens of thousands of largely urban, middle-class protesters who took to the streets to denounce the fixing of parliamentary elections in December. But by paying lip service to their demands he has only drawn attention to his central dilemma: crack down and risk bigger demonstrations, or ease up and undermine the carefully cultivated perception of authoritarian dominance.

Yulia Latynina, a political observer, recently pointed out that Mr Putin's apparent belief that concessions to public opinion display weakness means “you actually do show weakness when you compromise, something the public perceives just like a shark senses the blood of a wounded fish”.

Mr Putin has used his entire political toolbox to try to undermine the opposition. He trotted out President Dmitry Medvedev to issue another call for easing restrictions against political parties. On Monday the Kremlin introduced his most significant promise to parliament: a bill that would revive the direct elections of governors. Mr Putin cancelled these in 2005.

But the vague stipulation that parties nominate candidates “following consultations with the president, who will set the procedures for such consultations” has largely discredited the measure.

Some took the reassignment of Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin's chief ideologist and the brains behind Russia's “sovereign democracy”, as the deepest nod to the protesters. But Mr Surkov's appointment to the position of first deputy prime minister actually looks like a reward for his hard work during a scheduled reshuffle.

The choice for Mr Surkov's replacement appears more significant: Vyacheslav Volodin, a loyal enforcer from Mr Putin's United Russia Party expected to be a reliable overseer of the presidential election. His appointment follows the promotion of other close allies of Mr Putin, including Sergei Ivanov, a steely former KGB officer, to be his chief of staff. The regime appears to be closing ranks.

Finally, the masquerading of Mr Putin's loyal allies as reformers has returned in the person of Alexei Kudrin, who was forced out as finance minister in September. Mr Kudrin joined the protests last month, but showed his cards soon afterwards when he lauded Mr Surkov's reappointment as a sign that the government was ready to begin serious reform. Yesterday he admitted that his efforts to act as a mediator between the government and opposition had failed.

Although Mr Putin will almost certainly win re-election in March, how much real power he retains will largely depend on his handling of the election. Experts agree that he will want to win in the first round to preserve his aura of invincibility. The elections commission is set to select final candidates tomorrow. Most predict that either Mikhail Prokhorov, an oligarch, or Grigory Yavlinsky, a veteran liberal, will be ditched. Both are seen as Kremlin-approved figures meant to add a sheen of legitimacy to the process.

Moscow's next big protest takes place on February 4th. If it attracts a larger and more varied group of protestors than the last demonstration, on December 24th, some think Russia's elites could start to believe their positions would be more secure under another leader.

Still, the uncomfortable fact for advocates of democracy is that even the apparently progressive middle-class Russians who praise life in western countries benefit from Russia's vast corruption, which gives many of them a stake in the system.

So far Mr Putin's “concessions” have fallen flat. But the real battle will come if an increasingly emboldened opposition continues to undermine the promises of stability that have underpinned his tenure. Its course may depend on how far he is willing to go to stay in power.