Democrats are winning voters’ wallets—and perhaps their hearts as well

By THE DATA TEAM

WITH just 20 days left until the mid-term elections that will determine the fate of Donald Trump’s legislative agenda and possibly his presidency, national polls give the Democrats a robust lead of around eight percentage points. Republicans concede that such surveys look grim, but are counting on a surge of enthusiasm from their base voters in the wake of the political battle over the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. However, the third quarter’s campaign-finance statistics, which candidates had to submit to the Federal Election Commission by October 15th, suggest it is the opposition party that is on the right side of the “enthusiasm gap”—and ensure that the airwaves will be saturated with the Democrats’ preferred messages during the next three weeks.

The magnitude of the Democrats’ fund-raising advantage is hard to overstate. Of the 20 House campaigns that raised the most cash in the third quarter of this year, 18 were Democratic. The centre-left party out-raised its business-friendly opponents in donations from individuals by an average of $219,000 per race—enough money for thousands of extra mail pamphlets or a handful of television advertisements. Fund-raising leads have historically helped to predict the results of Congressional races, even after accounting for the built-in financial edge that incumbents tend to enjoy over their challengers. In 2014, when Republicans wrested control of the Senate away from the Democrats and expanded their House majority, Democrats received a paltry 38% of donations from individuals in competitive districts in the third quarter. This year, that share is a record-high 78%.

The fund-raising figures also shed light on the specific types of voters that the Democrats are winning over. The president’s “base” is widely recognised to be whites who did not complete college; perhaps unsurprisingly, the Democrats have reaped their biggest financial advantages in districts that have more educated voters and fewer white ones than the national average. In House districts where more than 34% of voters hold a college degree—the 70th percentile across the country—77% of contributions have gone to Democrats, slightly higher than the 70% share the party received nationwide. In districts where at least seven out of ten voters are racial minorities, Democrats have collected 76% of donations. However, the party is not merely extracting ever-greater financial loyalty from its base. In the third quarter of 2018, Democrats have managed to collect over 60% of donations even in seats currently held by Republicans, more than double the share they managed in 2016.