At the same time, lending rates have not kept pace. As new loans replace old ones—eg, as homeowners roll over two-year fixed-rate mortgages—margins are shrinking. The spread between the average two-year rate for a loan worth 75% of a house’s value and two-year swap rates has declined from 130 basis points to 62 in the past two years. Mr Cant notes that for riskier buy-to-let loans, in which some smaller challengers specialise, the margin squeeze has been even more acute.
Besides CYBG, TSB and Metro Bank, a newcomer which has been rolling out branches across southern England, Britain has a host of online-only retail banks that are clocking up impressive numbers. Revolut, which first made a splash with keenly priced foreign exchange, has just over 3m customers, about 1.3m of them in Britain. Monzo recently passed 1m accounts and Starling Bank 250,000. N26, a German online bank, set up shop on October 4th.
Whether the challengers, great or small, are bloodying the big banks is hard to say. According to CASS, a service for switching accounts between banks, 631,000 retail and small-business accounts were moved in the first eight months of the year. That is about 1% more than in the same period in 2017 but 9-20% less than in 2014-16. Craig Donaldson, Metro’s chief executive, thinks these figures mask the rise of “multibanking”: because digital technology has made opening accounts and moving money so easy, banks are focusing on becoming customers’ “primary card”. Still, loosening the big banks’ grip will be a long job.