Democracy in America | Young Americans

Early voting surges among young people

That is good news for the Democrats

By V.V.B. | CHICAGO

ON THE day of the tenth anniversary of his election as president Barack Obama returned to his adopted hometown, ostensibly to rally for J.B. Pritzker, the Democratic Party’s candidate for governor of Illinois. But his rally at the University of Illinois at Chicago Pavilion on November 4th was much more than a former Illinois senator giving another Illinoisan a helping hand. Mr Obama was there to implore the people of Chicago, in particular university students, to vote in the mid-term elections, which he said might be “the most important elections of your lifetime; maybe more important than 2008”. The “character of our nation” is on the ballot, he said.

Both President Donald Trump and Mr Obama have criss-crossed America in recent days imploring citizens to go to the polls. Both are the most popular figures in their respective parties and both are casting the mid-term elections on November 6th as one of the most important polls in history. (Mr Obama said that it would be “profoundly dangerous” not to vote.) By the afternoon of November 4th Mr Obama sounded hoarse after rallies in recent days in Indiana, Georgia and Florida. Mr Trump’s vocal cords were still strong after rallies in Georgia and Tennessee on the same afternoon.

Voter turnout in mid-term elections tends to be dismal. It is especially low among the young who live more transient lives than their elders, and are chiefly focused on their education or their first job. They are often uninspired by the mostly middle-aged men and women who ask for their vote. But recent polls and early voting numbers indicate that this time could be different.

On October 29th the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government released results of its biannual survey of 18- to 29-year-olds which shows that compared to both 2010 and 2014 young Americans are significantly more likely to vote in the 2018 mid-term elections. Overall, 40% say they will "definitely vote" in the mid-terms, with 54% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans considered likely voters. The highest rate of youth voter turnout in past mid-term elections was 21% in both 1986 and 1994, according to Census data. In 2014 less than 20% of youngsters bothered to vote—compared with roughly 40% of the general population.

The results of early voting seem to confirm the findings of the Harvard poll. Especially in states with hotly contested races in the south and south-west the increase in turnout is surprising veteran pollsters. In Texas, fully 332,000 voters under the age of 30 have already cast ballots, up nearly fivefold compared with the mid-term elections in 2014, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm which tracks the early vote. In Nevada, the number of young voters who have already cast their vote is also five times higher than in the last mid-terms. Georgia’s young voter turnout is four times higher than it was in 2014. In Arizona, the number of young voters turning up at the polls this year increased threefold.

The trend of increased involvement among young voters mirrors and surpasses one among the general population. In 22 states and Washington, DC the numbers of advance votes cast have already surpassed those of the last mid-term elections.

Universities across America have tried to entice young people to vote by offering them access to TurboVote, an online registration site. The University of Chicago says has the highest percentage of undergraduates signing up to TurboVote at 70.6%. Harvard is second with 38.4% and Pomona College in California third with 36.7%.

Could the young make a crucial difference? The Democrats tend to attract young voters more than the Republicans do. According to the Harvard poll Mr Trump's job approval among young Americans stands at 26%, with no statistical difference between those who say they will vote and others. Some 59% say they "will never" vote for Mr Trump. No wonder then that Mr Obama picked a university for one of his last big campaign rallies.

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