The Americas | Brazil’s presidential campaign

Jair Bolsonaro is stabbed at a rally

The attack could boost his chances in the vote next month

|SÃO PAULO

RARELY has the aphorism “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” been more apt. On September 6th Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right congressman who currently leads all eligible candidates in polls for Brazil’s presidential election, was attacked at a campaign rally. He was being carried in the air by enthusiastic supporters during a campaign rally in Juiz de Fora, a city in the state of Minas Gerais, when a man bearing a knife jumped out of the crowd and stabbed Mr Bolsonaro’s stomach, piercing his liver, lung and intestinal tract. The candidate was rushed to a local hospital, where he underwent surgery before being transferred to a different hospital in São Paulo the next morning.

Doctors said Mr Bolsonaro will be hospitalised for at least a week. But with a month left before the first round of the election on October 7th, he has now been made into a near-martyr. “I just want to send a message to the thugs who tried to ruin the life of a family man, a guy who is the hope for millions of Brazilians,” said his son, Flávio Bolsonaro, who is himself running for a seat in the Senate representing the state of Rio de Janeiro. “You just elected him president.”

The attack on Mr Bolsonaro appears to have been the work of a madman rather than a calculated attempt at political assassination. Immediately after the stabbing, the candidate’s supporters surrounded the assailant and turned him over to police, who later identified him as 40-year-old Adélio Bispo de Oliveira. He insisted that he was carrying out an “order from God”. The other presidential candidates all condemned the attack promptly, and several cancelled their campaign events scheduled for September 7th, which is Brazil’s independence day.

With only a month before the election, Mr Bolsonaro’s absence from the campaign trail might limit his ability to attract new supporters. However, the attack is likely to strengthen the allegiance of those who admire his iron-fist approach to crime. He has said police should be allowed to kill criminals without suffering consequences, and praised the military dictatorship that ruled Brazil from 1964-85. A new poll last week by Ibope, a research outfit, showed Mr Bolsonaro in the lead, with the support of 22% of voters. His closest rivals, Marina Silva, a former senator from a tiny party, and Ciro Gomes, a former state governor, were tied at 12%. “This incident will reinforce disenchantment and exacerbate the polarised environment,” says Chris Garman of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. “It will harden his base, increase his media exposure and impede the ability for his adversaries to go negative in advertisements against him.”

Even before the attack, Mr Bolsonaro’s presidential hopes were bolstered by recent legal setbacks for his competitors. Two of the other top contenders, Geraldo Alckmin of the centre-right Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and Fernando Haddad of the left-leaning Workers’ Party (PT), were both charged with illegal campaign financing. Although the cases will not block them from running, they may deepen voters’ distaste for both of Brazil’s biggest political parties, who have jointly held a lock on the top two spots in presidential elections since 1994. Having survived a stab to the stomach, Mr Bolsonaro may find it even easier to outlast such politically wounded opposition.

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