Indian voters give Narendra Modi’s BJP a fright

THE POWER of “anti-incumbency” in Indian politics has long been considered a law of nature. Yet something was supposed to have changed when Narendra Modi led his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to victory in 2014. His government is India’s most powerful in a generation and by far the strongest ever to stand against the Congress party that ran the country—more on than off—for five decades. The BJP subsequently tightened its grip on power, steamrolling to victory in a series of states. It seemed poised to make good on Mr Modi’s promise to bring about a “Congress-free” India—until this week.

In the past month five of the country’s 29 states went to the polls to elect five-year assemblies. In three the BJP was the incumbent. When the ballots were tallied, on December 11th, it became clear that the BJP’s steamroller had stalled. In Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, a swathe of the Hindi-speaking cow belt in which Mr Modi’s brand of aggressive Hindu nationalism plays well, the BJP lost scads of seats. Congress had been tipped to win Rajasthan—which nearly always kicks out its incumbents—and it did. The BJP was utterly routed in Chhattisgarh, to general surprise. And Madhya Pradesh kept punters breathless throughout the counting, with neither of the two big parties securing a majority, but Congress ahead. Whichever secures the support of the handful of smaller parties that scooped up the remaining seats may claim the state. Regional parties dominated the other two states, Telangana and Mizoram, as if to underscore the importance of cross-party alliances in next year’s general election.

The results confirm that Mr Modi faces a tough fight in that election. He still enjoys immense personal popularity. But Congress has proved that it can still muster votes in the heartland—a big step forward for a party that seemed totally moribund only a year ago. Its leaders have been hobnobbing with politicians from every non-BJP party, trying to cobble together the kind of coalition that could take down Mr Modi in parliament. Important regional satraps have seemed wary of Rahul Gandhi (pictured, in cardboard cutout), Congress’s youngish leader and scion of its founding family. But as the exit polls came in, they started to shift.

Pressure is mounting from all sides. Remarkably, even Mr Modi’s fellow-travellers from the Hindu right are voicing their displeasure. Hardline Hindu foot-soldiers from groups allied with the BJP gathered in Delhi at the weekend to demand that his government bypass a Supreme Court ruling and let them start building a temple on the site of a mosque they demolished in 1992. The dedication and organisation of such groups, one of which served as Mr Modi’s ideological training ground, are expected to play a crucial role in his 2019 campaign.

Worst of all, though, are the non-partisan factors. Mr Modi swept to power by promising economic development for all. And India’s GDP growth has been impressive—but no more so than it was for most of the decade before Mr Modi took over. Moreover, Indians are not feeling it. Unemployment, higher fuel prices and depressed agricultural earnings have become acutely painful. On November 30th, for the third time in three months, hundreds of thousands of farmers marched on Delhi to demand debt relief and more. Four-and-a-half years into a five-year term, it is getting trickier for Mr Modi to blame every disappointment on the previous Congress administrations.

The business class has not been feeling jolly either. Many members had grumbled about the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the central bank, wishing that it would lower interest rates and ease up on embattled public-sector banks. Then on December 10th the boss of the RBI resigned. Urjit Patel talked about “personal reasons”, but it was widely known that he had quit in exasperation at the government’s attempts to influence the bank. The rupee duly sank, almost to a record low.

The promise of economic reforms aimed at spurring development brought the hope, in 2014, that India might be at a turning point. Some of Mr Modi’s many efforts deserve applause, notably the reform of India’s antiquated bankruptcy law. Instead the way ahead is likely to be paved with competing offers of loan waivers for farmers, and worse.

Mr Modi’s party is rattled, and can be expected to adjust its strategy defensively. The state results do not necessarily mean that Congress is poised to vanquish the BJP in the national vote. But they do suggest it is more in the running than it had appeared to be. The outcome also matters for another, illicit reason. The elections to come are expected to be the most expensive fought by any democracy in history. Campaign financing in India is by and large illegal, and so covert. Control of a state assembly, and the bureaucracy that comes with it, is a good way to build up a discreet war-chest. Should the country’s smaller parties emerge as kingmakers after the general election, such sums will surely matter in winning them over.