Populists fall short of expectations in the European elections

By Charlemagne | BRUSSELS

THAT RIGHT-WING populism has gained ground in Europe in recent years is a well-established fact. A glance at the continent's recent electoral history shows that much: the Lega dominates Italy’s politics, Marine Le Pen made it to the run-off of the French presidential election in 2017, Law and Justice (PiS) runs Poland and elsewhere smaller parties from Alternative for Germany to the Danish People’s Party and Vox in Spain are shaping their countries’ politics. All of which is a far cry from the settled European party landscape of 15 or 20 years ago. But that much is known. The question now is: in what direction is European politics moving and at what pace?

This evening’s result in the European elections provides some answers to that, and caveat the more excitable commentaries about the rise of nationalists in Europe. Turnout is up for the first time ever, and at 51% higher than in any European election since 1994. And yes, the right-populists have done well again. The Lega is first in Italy, Ms Le Pen’s National Rally has narrowly beaten Emmanuel Macron to first place in France, PiS came first in Poland despite running against a mostly unified opposition ticket. But it is also clear that the mighty, breakneck populist surge of a couple of years ago—with Britain voting to leave the EU, populists topping polls all over the continent and a cataclysmic nationalist takeover threatening—is over. Nationalists are now consolidating their gains and settling into a much broader pattern: that of fragmentation.

Consider the numbers. Ms Le Pen’s result is down on 2014, the previous European election. So is the Austrian Freedom Party and, more drastically, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands. It is true that some of the latter’s support has switched to Forum for Democracy, a rival right-populist outfit. But this too underperformed expectations and the overall seat-share of Dutch Eurosceptics has halved. Alternative for Germany also disappointed its boosters: on 10.8% it only modestly increased its support on 2014 and did less well than in the 2017 Bundestag election. The Lega has made big gains, but it too seems to have done worse than was generally expected and its wins only just make up for losses elsewhere. (Even in Britain, where the Brexit party came first, it effectively replaced the United Kingdom Independence Party, which won in 2014.)

Overall the three Eurosceptic or hard-right groups in the European Parliament have, according to the parliament’s own projection, increased their seat share from 21% to 23%. Hardly a surge and oddly static after five years that have seen Europe face a migration crisis, the Brexit vote, terror attacks and the wholesale fragmentation of the continent’s politics.

Of that fragmentation there was much more evidence. The Green group is projected to swell in size from 52 seats to 70 seats, thanks especially to the German Green party’s 21% showing (taking second place and overtaking the doughty Social Democrats to become the largest party on the German left). The centrist Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe will grow from 69 to a projected 101 seats, with Mr Macron’s Renaissance joining and immediately becoming its largest member. Meanwhile the two big losers are the big-tent party families that have together run Europe as an informal “grand coalition”: the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D). Their joint tally falls from 401 seats (54%) to a projected 325 seats (43%).

This fact will shape the next European Parliament. For one thing, the EPP and S&D have lost their majority. Expect more ad hoc coalitions around case-by-case issues. And where a “grand coalition” of the centre is needed—on the upcoming approval of a new European Commission president, for example—it will have to be much broader than before and draw in liberals and even greens. The old two-party establishment has become at least a three-and-a-half-party establishment. And it is looking much less established, in any case. European politics is churning, splitting and recombining in new ways and directions. The long-term rise of the right-wing populists is part of that but not, in this election, a particularly new or dynamic one. Tonight’s crucial trend is not a populist surge but the revelation of the full scale of Europe’s political fragmentation.