America recognises Israeli control of the Golan Heights

THE GOLAN HEIGHTS, a sloping plateau wedged between Israel, Syria and Jordan, is smaller than Luxembourg (see map). But it is prime real estate. The most important tributary of the Jordan River, the Banias, originates there. Its tallest points, on Mount Hermon, offer sweeping views all the way to Damascus in the east. And its eastern hills serve as a formidable buffer to military forces. No wonder Israel, which seized most of the Golan from Syria in 1967 and annexed the territory in 1981—illegally, according to most countries—says it has no intention of handing it back.

On March 21st President Donald Trump upended decades of American policy by announcing—on Twitter, of course—that he did not expect Israel to do so, either. “After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and Regional Stability!” read Mr Trump’s tweet.

The president’s intervention was a brazen political giveaway to Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s scandal-plagued prime minister, who is in a tough race ahead of an election on April 9th. The move thrilled Israelis and bolstered Mr Netanyahu’s claim to be the most reliable guarantor of his country’s vital relationship with America, which under Mr Trump has also recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. But it will complicate efforts to secure Arab support for a forthcoming American plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

Though the Golan has political, economic and symbolic importance, its strategic value is paramount. That stems largely from its geography. In the 1950s and 1960s, Israel and Syria sparred over water sources and Israeli cultivation of demilitarised areas near the Golan. Syria sometimes shelled Israeli farms and villages in the Galilee below. Once Israel grabbed the Golan in the six-day war of 1967, it tightened its grip by expelling Syrians, establishing Jewish settlements and building up army and intelligence outposts.

That outraged the rest of the world, but gave Israel a strategic edge. When Syria attacked the Golan during the Yom Kippur war of 1973, Israel was able to repel over 1,000 Syrian tanks with just 177 of its own by exploiting the area’s terrain, including natural chokepoints. Mike Pompeo, America’s secretary of state, recently recalled studying those tank battles when he was a cadet at West Point, a military college.

Israeli commanders view the Golan not only as a shield, but also as a potential springboard. The plateau is just 60km away from Damascus, Syria’s capital. The peaks around Mount Hermon, control of which is split between Israel, Syria and Lebanon, are ideal vantage points for monitoring military activity and hoovering up intelligence. Though previous Israeli governments considered withdrawing from the Golan in exchange for Syrian concessions, most envisaged keeping early-warning facilities on the peaks.

Syria’s civil war created new challenges for Israel in the Golan. The local affiliate of al-Qaeda, the jihadists of Islamic State and Iranian-backed militias have all been active near the Israeli-Syrian border. This year and last Israel accused Iranian forces of firing rockets into the Golan—and responded with airstrikes on Iranian facilities in Syria. On March 13th Israeli officials accused Hizbullah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, of establishing a cell in the Syrian part of the Golan with the intention of mounting cross-border attacks.

All of that has convinced Mr Netanyahu to maintain Israel’s grip on the Golan and shun negotiations with Syria. So Mr Trump’s announcement makes little difference on the ground. But it does set an uncomfortable precedent. If Israel can capture and keep land by force, why can’t other countries? “This is a catastrophic departure from the very basis of international law,” wrote Carl Bildt, a former Swedish prime minister and diplomat, on Twitter. “[The] Kremlin will applaud and apply the same principle to Crimea. Beijing will applaud and apply to South China Sea.”