Spanish general election poll tracker

ON APRIL 28th Spain will hold its third general election in almost as many years. Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist prime minister, who presided over a minority government, called the snap election in February after his national budget was rejected in parliament. All 350 seats in Congress and 208 of the 266 seats in the Senate are being contested.

The election has been shaped by the Catalan crisis. The region’s leaders held an unconstitutional referendum on secession in 2017; after they declared “independence”, the national government imposed direct rule and dissolved the Catalan parliament. Though Catalonia’s self-government has since been restored, a dozen separatist leaders are being tried in the Supreme Court on charges punishable by long prison terms.

The referendum alarmed many Spaniards and contributed to a rightward shift in national politics. It led to a surge in support for Vox, a previously insignificant ultra-conservative party, which is now polling at 11% and could gain as many as 30 seats in Congress. The conservative People’s Party (PP) joined it in coalition in the southern region of Andalucía, and has sounded more hardline on immigration. Both Pablo Casado, the PP’s new leader, and Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos, a liberal party, have threatened to impose direct rule on Catalonia, which is likely to increase support for independence. Ciudadanos also responded to Mr Sánchez’s attempts to strike a conciliatory tone with Catalan parliamentarians by ruling out a coalition with the Socialists.

Although Spain’s political right has gained popularity, it has become fractured. That could benefit the Socialists, allowing them to capture some of the PP’s seats in rural areas. Spain’s system of proportional representation rewards the biggest parties in small provinces.

If the Socialists can gain more ground, they would hope to form a majority coalition with either Podemos, a leftist populist outfit, or (if it drops its objections) Ciudadanos. But if no government can be formed, Spain will have to hold another election in the autumn. Meanwhile the Catalan crisis, the cause of the political shake-up, rumbles on in the courts.

Source: pollofpolls.eu. Photo credits: PA; AFP; Rex/Shutterstock; Getty Images