The future of bolsonarismo

THIS HAS been a bad month for Brazil’s populist president, Jair Bolsonaro. First, Donald Trump, whose victory in 2016 served as a template for his own and with whom he aligned his government, lost his bid for a second term. And then the candidates Mr Bolsonaro backed in municipal elections on November 15th nearly all fared poorly, while the big winners were mainstream parties. Some pundits are rushing to write his political obituary. “The elections of 2018 were a hiatus and those of 2020 have put things back in their right place,” wrote Eliane Cantanhêde, the political columnist of O Estado de S. Paulo, a newspaper.

Brazilian liberals hope she is right, and that Mr Trump’s defeat will be an augury of Mr Bolsonaro’s fate at the next election in 2022. A former army captain, Mr Bolsonaro is scornful of democracy and its checks and balances, has stuffed his government with military men, says offensive things about gay, feminist and black Brazilians, favours gun ownership and underplays both covid-19 and climate change. His election broke the mould of Brazilian politics and was in some ways an aberration. Even so, it would be a mistake to write off his chances of a second term.