The world’s big carmakers and their Chinese counterparts are on the same road: to China’s flagship motor show, which opens this week. It will give another indication that global carmaking’s centre of gravity is shifting to the world’s largest car market. Western carmakers, which depend heavily on China, will show plenty of new models to lure the country’s growing middle class. But what will draw the most interest is the progress of domestic firms, such as Geely, SAIC and GAC. Dominant at the cheaper end of the market, these firms have improved quality from awful to surprisingly good. As they get better, their prospects of growing at home as well as exporting increases. But first they must get more competitive. China’s recent pledge to lift a 50% cap on foreign participation in joint ventures is a fork in the road that may isolate them from partner brands on which they have relied for profits.