The European Council extends Brexit, with strings attached

IT WAS MEANT to be sorted out before dinner. In fact the European Council discussion on March 21st over whether to extend the Article 50 deadline of March 29th went on to almost midnight. That was partly because European Union leaders wanted to resolve the issue, not to be dragged back to Brussels on March 28th. But it was also because Theresa May was maddeningly vague about what she would do if Britain’s Parliament once again rejects the Brexit deal when she puts it to a third meaningful vote next week.

The prime minister had come to the European Council seeking an extension of the deadline to June 30th. But EU leaders were quick to reject this, talking instead about May 22nd, the day before the European Parliament elections. And when Mrs May remained silent about her fallback options, the leaders decided to concoct a timetable of their own—without her even being present in the room.

The new plan is to extend the deadline to May 22nd, but only if Parliament passes the Brexit deal next week. If it still refuses, the deadline will become April 12th (the deadline for Britain to legislate to hold European elections in May), when Mrs May will be asked to come up with a proposal. EU leaders said they were willing then to offer a much longer extension (Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, joked that it could be “until the very end”)—but only if Britain were prepared to hold European Parliament elections. This is something Mrs May has set her face against.

Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said that Britain would face four choices: the current Brexit deal; no deal; revoking Article 50; or accepting a long extension. Asked about these choices Mrs May carefully ruled out only revoking Article 50. Yet in practice, unless MPs shift within days towards backing the deal, she will face a binary choice: between no deal and holding European elections, which would also imply a long extension.

The prime minister’s already slim chances of getting her deal through seem to have got slimmer still since her ill-advised attack on MPs earlier this week for obstructing the people’s will. Last night she was more conciliatory, saying that, although she felt frustrated, she understood why MPs were frustrated too. Yet with the threat of no deal on March 29th having vanished, so has any real likelihood that the House of Commons will vote for the deal next week.

Instead MPs seem likely to take over the agenda themselves and begin the process of holding indicative votes on different Brexit options. These could include a Norway-like version now dubbed Common Market 2.0, which Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, is thinking of supporting. Another option may be to go back to the people in a fresh referendum, perhaps by offering voters a choice between the current deal and staying in the EU.

Yet time is tight: April 12th is just three weeks away. And since Mrs May seems so firmly opposed to holding European elections, the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains. Until this week most observers thought the prime minister would at the last minute pull back from such a potentially damaging choice. But there were signals this week that she might not. A no-deal Brexit would at least allow her to say she had got Britain out of the EU. It is still not the most probable outcome. But it has become more likely than it was a few weeks ago.