Moon Jae-in’s grand design for the Korean peninsula

By L.R.S. | SEOUL

TODAY Moon Jae-in, South Korea’s president, travelled to Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital. Thus began his third meeting this year with Kim Jong Un, the North’s dictator, also marking the first time a South Korean leader has visited the city in more than a decade. One purpose of the visit is to persuade Mr Kim to resume negotiations with America about giving up his nuclear programme—talks which have largely stalled since a ballyhooed summit in June between Mr Kim and Donald Trump. But South Korea’s president also hopes to strengthen ties between the two Koreas, particularly economic ones. What are Mr Moon’s plans for the future of the Korean peninsula?

The two Koreas have been separated by a heavily militarised border ever since an armistice ended the Korean war in 1953. Mr Moon, whose family is from the North, began his political career as an adviser to Roh Moo-hyun, a former president who pushed for closer ties between the two Koreas. He deplores their abiding division and thinks that the peninsula should eventually be reunited. The president’s plan for healing the rift is based on the economic reintegration of the two Koreas. His “new economic map” envisages repairing road and railway links and building pipelines through North Korea to transport Russian gas to the South. He also wants to revive South Korean tourism to the North and persuade South Korean companies to invest in a range of special economic zones throughout the North, starting with the reopening of the industrial complex near the border at Kaesong, which was shuttered in 2016 following a missile test by North Korea. To this end, a group of business leaders, including executives from the South’s big conglomerates, have accompanied him to Pyongyang.

Apart from healing the rift between the two Koreas, Mr Moon hopes that this plan will trigger an economic boom across North-East Asia. That would be useful for South Korea, which is battling slowing growth and a rapidly ageing society. Within limits, it would also be fine for Mr Kim, whose cash-strapped regime could do with the investment. A recent parade marking the 70th anniversary of North Korea’s founding featured colourful floats praising economic development, as well as the usual goose-stepping soldiers.

But the plan is beset by problems. For one, South Koreans are not as enthusiastic as their president about economic co-operation with their impoverished neighbours. They are unwilling to cough up the money that the president needs for his designs, given the North’s lack of funds. And although North Korea may be happy to let the South pay for repairing some of its ailing infrastructure, it will probably balk at the idea of letting South Korean managers take over running the economy. But most importantly, the international sanctions regime against North Korea is unlikely to be lifted until the country is deemed to have made sufficient progress towards giving up its nuclear programme. As Mr Moon was preparing to depart for Pyongyang, America called a meeting at the UN Security Council to discuss how to push back against any violation of the sanctions. However ambitious Mr Moon’s plans may be, for now they are illegal.