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The World Ahead | The World in 2021

Brexit and covid-19 show up the disunited kingdom

Cracks will widen

By Matthew Holehouse: British politics correspondent, The Economist

THE UNION of the United Kingdom—England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland—is unwell. It will survive 2021, and the years immediately after. Its condition is chronic, rather than acute. But relations between London and the other national capitals will worsen. For 20 years the tension between unionism and separatism has been contained by the devolution settlement, under which parliaments in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast make laws. That system will come under assault from all sides.

The deepest reflection over whether the union can hold together will come in Northern Ireland. The centenary of its founding and the partition of Ireland will be commemorated in 2021. It will be a muted affair. The British government has proposed a programme to promote culture, sport and business. Michelle O’Neill, the deputy first minister from Sinn Fein, a nationalist party that wants Ireland reunified, says there is “nothing to celebrate”. For the unionist side, celebrations may also be in short supply.

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