As winter sets in, Syrians worry about how they will afford fuel, often sourced through Lebanese ports. Shortages of cooking and heating gas last winter, caused by a mix of international sanctions and corruption, led to widespread anger. The queues and scarcity will probably be worse this winter. Petrol stations in Lebanon are already struggling to keep the pumps filled; they briefly shut down last month to protest at the shortage of dollars at the official exchange rate.
The Syrian government is trying to reduce imports, but the country’s shattered factories cannot provide basic goods. Many firms rely on raw materials from abroad, bought with dollars, then sell their finished goods on an impoverished domestic market. In some industries prices are fixed by the government: drug firms, for example, find it all but impossible to break even. Last month Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator, decreed a pay rise of 20,000 pounds ($24) for civil servants. That is a 50% increase for many—but it is barely enough to allow them to pay for a winter coat.
Lebanon is Syria’s biggest foreign market: it bought $132m of Syrian goods in 2017, 21% of total exports. A drop in purchasing power may hurt trade. It will also dent the value of remittances. Though many of the 1.5m Syrians in Lebanon are refugees barred from formal employment, aid groups estimate that their remittances still account for perhaps one-sixth of the total sent back to Syria from abroad. A pro-government newspaper in Syria has suggested that Mr Assad tax the diaspora. That might be tricky. It was his brutality that sent millions into exile in the first place.
Mr Assad has shrugged off concerns about the economy. “Syrians have a lot of money,” he says. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s leaders are fighting over berths on a sinking ship. The prime minister, Saad Hariri, resigned on October 29th after weeks of protests. In November politicians seemed to agree on Samir Khatib, a businessman, as his replacement. But on December 8th Mr Khatib abruptly withdrew from consideration. Talks about a new cabinet were again postponed. His nomination seems to have been a stunt intended to make Mr Hariri look like the only viable option. “It’s a game. He still wants the job,” says an aide.