The foundations of Venezuela’s regime are cracking, not yet collapsing

IT IS A fortnight since Juan Guaidó, the young speaker of the national assembly, proclaimed himself Venezuela’s caretaker president, triggering a co-ordinated push to topple the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro. Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have demonstrated for that. More than three dozen countries, mainly in the Americas and Europe, have recognised Mr Guaidó’s putative government on the grounds that Mr Maduro’s second term, which began last month, is the product of a fraudulent election. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry.

The hope is that all this will persuade the armed forces to withdraw their support from Mr Maduro. Some officers, including two air-force generals, have backed Mr Guaidó. But so far the high command has stayed loyal. Mr Maduro is defiant. “The coup d’état they wanted has failed and they haven’t noticed,” he said on February 2nd. The longer this stand-off lasts, the greater the risks. One is that a frustrated American administration turns to military force, something that Donald Trump this month said remains “an option”. The other is that Mr Maduro survives in office, but rules a wasteland.